PREMISE
For Thursday, Sep 30, Support = 11,180 and 11,130 with Resistance = 11,300 for Nifty50
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a gap-up for Nifty50 in India with a 105 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,360 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 IST
US futures trading in green also indicate a positive open for India
The S&P 500 Index rose to a two-week high after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested he’ll offer Democrats a proposal for $1.5 trillion in pandemic aid. Sentiment was helped by a report that showed US companies added a better-than-forecast 749,000 jobs in September, overshadowing concern about a contested election outcome
Unemployment in the United States are still at 870,000 and this is a big concern for faster recovery of the economy
Airlines are preparing to lay off tens of thousands of workers starting Thursday unless they get additional federal aid. Walt Disney said it would slash 28,000 workers from its slumping resort business. Royal Dutch Shell is to cut as many as 9,000 employees while German auto-parts supplier Continental AG may layoff or move 30,000 jobs
China’s Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 51.5 for September, while the non-manufacturing PMI was 55.9. Within manufacturing, new export orders rose to 50.8 from 49.1, above the watershed mark of 50.0, first time since Dec 2019
US Dollar Index bounced 0.25% higher against a basket of global currencies to 94.14 as equities retreated following the first US presidential debate
Global investors are also turned cautious amid uncertainty on the US presidential elections and increased buying the dollar
US crude oil inventories have been on steady decline since midsummer, falling in the most recent week to the lowest level since early April at 494.4 million bbl, according to the EIA data
India reports record high Current Account surplus of $19.8 Billion amidst demand drop. This would be the 2nd-consecutive quarter that economy has seen a current account surplus – implicating a higher expected Forex reserves, which is currently standing at a record high of $545 Billion
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he won’t hesitate to impose new restrictions as governments across Europe tighten measures to battle a Covid-19 resurgence. The Dutch government urged citizens to wear masks and the Czech Republic issued a 30-day state of emergency
INDIA MARKETS
| Nifty50 on Wednesday | Open 11,244 | High 11,295 | Low 11,184 | Close 11,247 |
Nifty50 on Wednesday posted a subdued trading session for second straight day, closing marginally 03 points above day opening at 11,247 after making a high of 11,295
Nifty50 is consolidating on its 50-day EMA at 11,180
The S&P BSE Sensex ended 0.25% or 90 points higher at 38,067
A sustained trade above 11,244 level will extend the gains to 11,300, and a failure to sustain beyond 11,244 level may trigger a profit booking decline to 10,850 level, which is also the 200-day EMA level
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 11,300 and a breach of this level may bring further upside to the index
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,180 and 11,130 levels for Thursday
Bharat Petroleum was the top laggard on the Nifty 50 index after seeing yet another extension in the deadline to submit the EoIs for the company’s strategic divestment. Shares ended 9% lower
Bank Nifty eventually ended flat after being down as much as 1.2% during the day, finally settling above its crucial mark of 21,000 at 21,451. It continues to form higher lows suggesting an upward movement but a hold below 21,000 can put a lot of pressure for the downside zone
India Volatility Index ended 0.4% lower on Wednesday at 19.69 with lower volatility hinting at possible bounce back
FMCG stocks outperformed, with gains led by Hindustan Unilever, Britannia and Nestle India. The index ended with gains of 1.3%
Broader markets too ended flat. The Midcap index closed unchanged while the smallcap index saw modest declines of 0.3%
Telecom stocks were the worst performers with BSE Telecom index declining over 2.86%
On Wednesday, grey market premium euphoria for Mazagon Dock is fading out as it slipped from Rs 140 to 120 per share, similarly, the premium for UTI AMC unlisted shares dropped by half from Rs 42 to 20 per share. GMP of CAMS and Chemcon fell about 15% each to Rs 312 and 320, respectively
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.40% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.80 – 3.90% as on Sep 29
The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) stands at 18.0% according to RBI data. It is the percentage of total deposits banks have to invest in government bonds and other approved securities
Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) stands at 3.0% as per RBI data. Under CRR a certain percentage of the total bank deposits has to be kept in the current account with RBI which means banks do not have access to that much amount for any economic activity or commercial activity
US MARKETS
U.S. stocks climbed as lawmakers and the White House appeared closer to reaching a fiscal stimulus
Nasdaq Composite rose 82 points or 0.75% by the closing bell at 11,167 helped by gains in Netflix and Microsoft
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 300 points or 1.2% after opening bell to close at 27,781
The S&P500 registered gains, climbing 30 points or 0.85% by to close at 3,363
Russel 1000 Index Growth rose 15 points or 0.80% to close at 1,872
Today in derivatives market, all 3 futures trading in green with Dow futures up 199 points, S&P500 futures up 19 points and Nasdaq100 futures up 66 points
ASIAN MARKETS
Stock trading in Asia got off to a slow start in part because of an exchange outage in Japan, where the biggest technical system issue in over a decade halted most equity trading
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea markets are shut for a holiday
Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.60% in morning trade at 5,908
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. announced plans to turn its wireless carrier unit NTT Docomo Inc. into a wholly owned subsidiary in a $40 billion buyout. NTT Docomo shares surged by their limit at the close in Tokyo
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, traded 0.19% higher
EU MARKETS
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally was down 0.06% by the closing bell on Wednesday
Stoxx 50 slipped 0.64% closing at 3,193. The index had seen a big rally on Monday
Germany’s DAX closed mute on Wednesday, down 65 points or 0.51% or at 12,760
London’s FTSE 100 pulled down 0.53% to settle at 5866
France’s CAC40 opened gap-down and added points to trade at 4803 by the closing bell
OIL & NATURAL GAS MARKETS
Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange traded 3.9% up on Wednesday, closing at $42.36 a barrel. Today it is trading lower at $42.28
US WTI crude traded 3.00% up on Tuesday, settling at $40.24 a barrel. Today it is trading at $40.15
Natural Gas futures was up 2.73% on Wednesday, closing at $2.722 per MMBtu. Today it is trading at $2.763
On MCX, India’s Crude oil futures was up nearly 2% on Wednesday, closing at 2934
India’s Natural gas futures dropped 0.96% on the day, to close at 186
GOLD & SILVER MARKETS
Gold futures fell on Wednesday, currently trading below its 50-day EMA, which is 1900
US gold futures settled down 0.23% at $1,885 per ounce on Wednesday. Today, it is trading at $1,890
Silver futures declined 2.81% to close at $23.24 per ounce on Wednesday. Today, it is trading lower at $23.54
On MCX, 4 Dec Gold futures fell 0.62% or 316 to 50,336 per 10 gram
On MCX, 4 Dec Silver futures fell 3.95% or 2,466 to 60,001 per kg
INDIA – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was down 0.70% trading at 1,150.15 ; led by gains in Chana and Soy Bean on Wednesday
CURRENCY MARKETS
US dollar strengthened on Wednesday’s trading session, with currency index gaining 0.03% against its G-10 peers, to settle at 93.91
Euro/USD levels fell 0.22% on Wednesday, closing at 1.1714, with Euro weakening
The Japanese yen strengthened by 0.06% on Wednesday versus the greenback at 105.54 per dollar
Sterling traded at $1.2903, up 0.35% on Wednesday, with sterling strengthening versus dollar
USD/INR opened at 73.7780 and lost 23 cents on Wednesday, to settle below the 75-per USD mark at 73.5400
Offshore Chinese yuan, CNH/USD, stands at 0.1470, up 0.54% with dollar weakening to CNH
BOND MARKETS
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded optimistically at 0.691 on Wednesday, up 6.33% on the day
The 30-year bond yield traded 3.68% up at 1.468 on Wednesday
India 10 Year bond yield stood at 6.091, declining 0.78% from 6.139, on Wednesday
Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to -0.52%
Britain’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 0.23%
New Zealand’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 0.485%
FUND FLOWS on 30.09.2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Sell Rs 712.48 Cr in Cash Market ( + sold 11,433 Cr since Sep 22)
DII Net Buy Rs 409.47 Cr in Cash Market
