Index Trend & Conditions
Major Resistance created at 11,650 for Nifty50
For Tuesday, Oct 6, Support at 11,300 and 11,450 with Resistance at 11,535 11,600 11,650 for Nifty50
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive and steady outlook for Nifty50 in India with a 55 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,577 on the Singaporean Exchange at 09:00 IST
US futures trading in green, a strong Asia-Pacific early morning trade with the dollar under pressure indicate a positive open for India benchmark indices
Global Premise
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with the bigwigs of the tech world inaugurate #RAISE2020 Summit on Artificial Intelligence. He mentioned that govt’s sees a big role for AI in empowering Agriculture, Healthcare & Education . Also, role for AI in improving Urban Infra, making disaster management response stronger
In France, Prime Minister’s office announced that starting Tuesday Paris will be placed on maximum COVID-19 alert, meaning bars will be forced to close for two weeks and restaurants will have to put in place new sanitary protocols to stay open. At the same time, final Markit PMI data showed both France’s services and private sector returned to contraction territory in September, as the country battles a resurgence of COVID-19 infections
On the Brexit front, British PM Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed on Saturday to work together to meet the transition deadline and to reach a trade agreement. Global stock markets have also been supported by news that US President Donald Trump had continued to improve after contracting Covid-19 last week, and could be discharged from the hospital as early as Monday
In the commodity market, strike in Norway has shut six offshore oil and gas fields. According to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, the strike could cut the country’s petroleum production capacity by as much as 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) or 8% of its total output. The conflict began on September 30th when a group of workers organized by the Lederne union went on strike as wage talks failed between the union and the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
In the US economy, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.8 in September 2020 from 56.9 in August, beating market expectations of 56.3
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said he would welcome 2.5% inflation in the US for a time in order to average out the current period in which price pressures are running below the central bank’s 2% target
Evans also added that he also doesn’t see the unemployment rate, which fell to 7.9% last month, returning to 4% until 2023
Goldman Sachs foresees the European Central Bank boosting its pandemic bond-buying program by 400 billion euros ($470 billion) in December, after euro-zone inflation weakened further
India Markets
| Nifty50 on Monday | Open 11,487 | High 11,578 | Low 11,452 | Close 11,503 |
Nifty50 on Monday opened with a gap-up session and headed towards the 11,600 level but settled near to 11,503 level
Nifty has formed a formed a bullish candle, but a Spinning Top kind of formation as it dropped 100 points in the latter half of the day
The S&P BSE Sensex added more than 270 points or 0.7% to close at 38,974 on Monday
Banks were the best performers after India’s government said it would waive the compounding interest component on loans up to 2 Crores
In addition, IT stocks gained after Tata Consultancy Services said it would consider buying back shares later this week
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 11,535 11,600 11,650 for Tuesday and a breach of 11,600 – 11,650 area may bring further upside to the index
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,300 – 11,450 area for Tuesday
Bank Nifty opened positive and continued buying interest towards the key hurdle at 22,750 level, but failed to sustain at higher zone. It continued to form higher tops and bottoms on the daily scale, but formed a Doji candle with a long upper shadow, which indicated absence of follow-up buying interest. On the downside, key support exists at 22,000
India Volatility Index rose 7.38% on Tuesday from 18.35 to 19.70
Broader markets ended flat. The Midcap index closed with a drop of 0.10% while the smallcap index saw modest rise of 0.5%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 2.66% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 2.50 – 3.30% as on Oct 03
GST collections in September stood at 95,000 Crore, witnessing a positive YoY growth after hovering in the negative territory for the previous 6 months
As monetary and fiscal stimulus could lead to un-balanced growth in the economy leading to inflation and fiscal deficit; government’s push for structural reforms in agriculture, land, labour, power, taxation, public and financials, trade and tariff sectors could prove instrumental in the long-term recovery
US Markets
US Stocks traded higher on Trump’s prognosis and rallied sharply overnight
The S&P500 rose 1.8% to 3,408 ; the highest in almost three weeks on the largest advance in a week
The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.3% to 11,332 ; the largest advance in a week
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7% to 28,149
Russel 2000 Index hits 4-week high, touches 1,572
Canda’s S&P/TSX Composite Index traded higher above the 16,200 level on Monday, with energy shares among the best performers on the back of a rise in oil prices
Today in derivatives market, Dow futures is up 0.17%, S&P500 futures is up 0.03% and Nasdaq100 futures down 0.24%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. rallied after Trump was given an experimental antibody treatment made by the drugmaker
Energy, materials and health care shares were the biggest gainers in the S&P, the real estate sector the only decliner
Fiscal stimulus continues to be a wild card for the market, and uncertainty around the health of the president certainly looms large
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asia’s stock markets edged higher on Tuesday, cautiously adding to gains made with an improvement in both U.S. President Donald Trump’s health and prospects for a US stimulus package, while bonds and the dollar nursed losses
China markets remain closed for a holiday
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% in early morning trade to trade at 23,425 while the Topix 500 gained 0.38% and is trading at 1,268
South Korea’s Kospi added 0.60% in morning trade at 2,373
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained points in morning trade, up 0.76% to trade at 23,945
Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.2% in early trade
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, rose 0.20% to a two-week high
EU Markets
European equities gained momentum on Monday’s trade
Investors welcomed upbeat data showing the Eurozone retail sales rose more than expected in August, while the bloc’s service sector contracted less than initially thought in September
Signs that President Trump’s health was improving and the prospect of a Brexit deal also boosted sentiment
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index surged 0.9% by the closing bell on Monday
Stoxx 50 also advanced 0.9% closing at 3,220
Germany’s DAX30 gained 1.1% to one-week high of 12,828
London’s FTSE 100 added 0.7% to close at 5,943 on Monday, the highest level since September 18
France’s CAC40 added 47 points, or 1% to end at a two-week high of 4,872 on Monday
OMX Copenhagen increased to an all-time high of 1381
Rally in oil prices helped to support energy firms
Shares in Cineworld tumbled after the company decided to temporarily shut its movie theatres in the US and the UK
UK car sales fell again in September as the coronavirus crisis continued to hit demand
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
WTI crude rose more than 6% to trade around $39.4 a barrel on Monday, amid positive news about US President Donald Trump. Today it is trading up at $39.30
Prices were also supported by an escalating workers’ strike in Norway that has shut six offshore oil and gas fields
Brent crude futures on the Intercontinental Exchange were up more than 4% to around $41.2 a barrel on Monday. Today it is trading lower up at $41.42
Natural Gas futures was up 9% on Monday to $2.894 per mmbtu. Today it is trading up at $2.900
On MCX, India’s Crude oil futures surged 2.19% on Monday to 2900
India’s Natural gas futures rose 7% on the day, to close at 195
Gold & Silver Markets
Globally, gold prices steadied in early trade on Thursday as a softer dollar and progress on another US coronavirus relief package countered pressure from an upbeat US private payrolls data
US gold futures strengthened 0.8% to $1,914.32 an ounce, the highest in more than two weeks. Today, it is trading at $1,911.79
Silver traded higher around $23.9 an ounce on Monday, amid a slightly weaker dollar as investors await more news on Trump’s health
So far, silver is up more than 37% on the year
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was down 0.51% trading at 1,153.70 ; gains in Chana on Monday
Currency Markets
US dollar softly declined on Monday’s trading session, with currency index falling 0.38% against its G-10 peers, to settle at 93.45
Brazilian real traded higher at 5.6 against the greenback, moving away from a four-month low touched in the previous month as investors turned to riskier currencies
Argentine Peso hits all-time low, with USD/ARS reaching all time high of 77.05
Canadian dollar touched a two-week high of $1.3263
Euro/USD surged 0.57% on Monday, closing at 1.178, with Euro strengthening, after data showed the Eurozone retail sales rose more than expected in August
The Japanese yen fell 0.41% on Monday versus the greenback at 105.744 per dollar
British pound traded slightly higher at $1.29 on Monday after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed in a phone call on Saturday to step up Brexit talks
India’s rupee traded around 73.2 per USD, not far from a one-month high of 73 to the greenback reached last week
Offshore Chinese yuan, CNH/USD, stands at 0.1483, up 0.47% with dollar weakening to CNH
Taiwan dollar has risen more than 4% this year as its electronics and chip-making sector is seen as a beneficiary of US restrictions on China
Bond Markets
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries climbed five basis points to 0.76%, the highest in almost four months on the largest surge in a month
The yield on 30-year US Treasuries jumped seven basis points to 1.56%, reaching the highest in almost four months on its sixth straight advance and the biggest surge in a month
India 10 Year bond yield rose 9 basis points to 6.088
Germany’s 10-year yield jumped three basis points to -0.51%, the highest in more than a week on the largest surge in more than three weeks
Britain’s 10-year yield rose four basis points to 0.288%, the highest in almost five weeks
New Zealand’s 10-year yield rose 1 basis points to 0.50%
Japan’s 10-year yield climbed 1 basis points to 0.02%
Singapore’s 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 0.86%
South Korea’s 10-years yield rose 4 basis points at 1.45%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Oct 05, 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Buy Rs 236.71 Cr in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs 471.56 Cr in Cash Market
