PREMISE
For Monday, Sep 28, Support = 10,805 and 10,870 with Resistance = (11,300 – 11,244) and 11,130 for Nifty50
As per BOfA’s survey discretionary consumption demand to take a hit in India due to (a) Job losses (b) falling income levels; with covid situation fast progressing from a supply shock to a demand shock
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive start for Nifty50 in India with a 86 points gain since Friday close. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,118 on the Singaporean Exchange at 07:30 IST
As per RBI’s bank loan and deposit growth data for the fortnight ending Sep 11, bank credit grew at 5.26% YoY to Rs 102.24 lakh crore while deposits rose 11.98% YoY to Rs 142.48 lakh crore
India’s Forex Reserves in the week ended Sep 18, RBI’s data showed an increase by $3.378 billion to a life high Reserve of $545.038 billion. Foreign Currency Asset (FCA) swelled by $3.943 billion to $501.464 billion; Gold reserved dropped by $580 million to $37.440 billion; Special drawing rights with the IMF rose by $1 million to $1.483 billion and Reserve position with the IMF rose by $14 million to $4.651 billion
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers last week, selling Rs 10,491 Cr of Indian shares in the cash market
As per data from financial flow tracking firm EPFR (Cambridge, MA) investors pulled out a massive $25 billion out of US equity funds in the week ending mid-way Sep 23, mainly from sectors which were the main beneficiaries in the wake of covid- March crash
INDIA MARKETS
Nifty50 with other domestic indices snapped a six-day losing streak on Friday, gaining 245 points or 2.26% and settling at 11,050.25
BSE advanced 835 points or 2.28% to close at 37,388.66
Nifty formed a bullish candle on Friday on the daily chart and a bearish candle on the weekly chart pointing to a negative weekly price formation
Nifty rebounded from its strong support at 10,800 area, which was close to 200-day EMA and reclaimed the psychological important level of 11,000
The bounce could mark a strong footing for the next rally, as the index is still resting in its weekly Rising Channel
A breach of this support at 10,800 would have escalated the selloff
On the higher side, resistance is seen at 11,130 and (11,244 – 11,300) area for Monday and a breach of this level may bring further upside to the index
While, on the downside, support is seen at 10,800 – 10,820 and 10,607 area for Monday
Bank Nifty gained 525 points to close near its crucial mark of 21,000. It formed a small bullish candle on the daily scale and a bearish candle on the weekly scale
India VIX sharply declined 12.06% on Friday, from 23.51 to 20.67 level
Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 250 gained 2.89% and 2.57% respectively
Telecom player Vodafone Idea hogged the limelight amid reports that the company has won an arbitration case against the government over the Rs 20,000 Cr retrospective tax demand
India 10 Year bond yield stood at 6.040, rise of 1.15%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.43% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 2.00 – 4.00%
The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) stands at 18.0% according to RBI data. It is the percentage of total deposits banks have to invest in government bonds and other approved securities
Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) stands at 3.0% as per RBI data. Under CRR a certain percentage of the total bank deposits has to be kept in the current account with RBI which means banks do not have access to that much amount for any economic activity or commercial activity
Grey market behavior of unlisted shares show that investors are turning more cautious after the huge selloff last week. GMP for CAMS has dropped to 24% on upper end of price band, for UTI AMC it has halved to 13.5%; whereas Mazgaon Docks is seeing a GMP of 93% over the IPO price band of 135-145. Attributed to the fact, that Mazgaon docks is being seen as the next IRCTC in terms of lucrative pricing and future growth
US MARKETS
US stocks rose on Friday with tech stocks lifting the benchmark indices by 1%
Nasdaq Nasdaq Composite added 241 points or 2.26% by the closing bell at 10,913.60
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 359 points or 1.34% to close at 27,173.96
The S&P 500 gained 52 points or 1.60% by the end of trading day to close at 3,298.46
down nearly 10% from its Sep 2 peak
Russel 1000 Index Growth jumped 30 points or 01.68% to close at 1,836.41
Today in derivatives market, all 3 futures trading in green with Dow futures rising 108 points, S&P 500 futures up 13 points and Nasdaq 100 futures up 40 points
ASIAN MARKETS
Stocks in Asia-Pacific traded mixed on Friday morning
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 added 117 points or 0.51% by the closing bell
South Korea’s Kospi opened gap-up but dropped points to close at 2279
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.32% to close at 23,235
Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.51% to close at 5,964.9
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, traded 0.1% higher
EU MARKETS
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended by over 2.0% lower by the closing bell on Friday
Stoxx 50 saw big bearish moves last week, suggesting continuation of downside trend or sideways movement. The index settled 0.71% down at 3137.10
Germany’s DAX saw big bearish price movements last week with the index shedding 1.09% settling at 12,469 by the closing bell
London’s FTSE 100 pulled up 0.34% to settle at 5842.7
France’s CAC 40 shed 0.69% to trade at 4729.7 by the closing bell
Autos shed 1.5% to lead losses while travel stocks swung to almost 3% gains
OIL & NATURAL GAS MARKETS
Rising cases of coronavirus and rising crude supply still raises concerns over stalled demand
Oil slipped on Friday and was on track for a 2.1% weekly decline
Today, Brent crude is trading down 0.10% at $41.74 a barrel at 08:00 AM IST
Today, U.S. WTI crude is trading down 0.05% at $40.09 a barrel
Today, Natural Gas futures is up 1.11% in early morning trade, at $2.913 per MMBtu after dropping 2.4% in Thursday’s trade
On MCX, India’s Crude oil future dropped 0.13% on Friday’s close for 2969
India’s Natural gas futures closed flat on Friday at 165.0 after forming a Bullish candle with a long upper shadow on Thursday’s trade, closing 7.6% up at 165.9
GOLD & SILVER MARKETS
Gold remains flat as Dollar resumes rally and clocks best week since April
US gold futures is trading flat at $1,861.50 per ounce on Monday early morning
Spot gold is down 0.14% at $1,863.50 per ounce on Monday at 08:00 AM IST
Silver is trading mute at $22.88, after dropping to its lowest level in over a month
On MCX, Oct gold futures dropped 0.48% or 238 to 49,666 per 10 gram
On MCX, Dec silver futures dropped 1.02% or 611 to 59,018 per kg
INDIA – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 0.82% or 09.35 points at 1,142.50 ; led by gains in Ref Soya Oil and Chana on Friday, Sep 25
US DOLLAR
US dollar advanced on Friday close, with currency index gaining 0.26% against its G-10 peers, at 94.577, 2-month peak
Euro/USD levels falling 0.32% on Friday close at 1.1630, with Euro weakening
The Japanese yen weakened by 0.15% on Friday versus the greenback at 105.55 per dollar
Sterling was last trading at $1.2745, up on Friday, with sterling strengthening
USD/INR opened at 73.897 and fell 19 cents higher on Friday, settling below the 75-per USD mark at 73.707
CNH, the offshore yuan, stands at 6.8429 to the USD, up 0.03% with dollar strengthening to CNH
US TREASURY
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is trading at 0.663%, down from Monday’s high of 0.698%
The 30-year bond yield is trading flat at 1.407%, down from Monday’s high at 1.460%
FUND FLOWS on 25.09.2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Sell Rs 2,080 Cr in Cash Market (+ Sold 2,072 Cr on Tue + Sold 3,912 Cr on Wed + Sold 1,885 Cr on Thu)
DII Net Buy Rs 2,070 Cr in Cash Market
