Index Trend & Conditions
Major Resistance created at 11,960 and 12,100 for Nifty50
For Thursday, Oct 22, Support at 11,800 with Resistance at 12,020 and 12,100 for Nifty50
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative outlook for Nifty50 in India with a 20 points loss. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,897 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 IST
Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading negative in red, a negative outlook of Asia-Pacific early morning market, a Dragonfly Doji pattern on Wednesday’s Nifty50 trade with deteriorating market breadth and a strengthening dollar on the day indicate a gap-down start with a negative bias for Indian benchmark indices
India Markets
| Nifty50 on Wednesday | Open 11,958 | High 12,018 | Low 11,775 | Close 11,937 |
Nifty50 added 40 points or 0.34% on Wednesday at 11,937
The index kissed the 12,000 level but failed to reclaim it on a closing basis, and rather remained consolidative above 11,800 level
The support of 11,800 has been respected yet again, which is a confirmation that the underlying tone continues to remain bullish
Bulls protected the first line of defense placed at 11,800 support level, which triggered a late short-covering
The index formed a Dragonfly Doji candle on the daily chart with a long lower shadow, indicating that declines are being bought in the market
Nifty now seems to be moving in a closed range between 12,000 and 11,777
As Nifty has been shadowing Dow Jones Industrial Average index on the US market very closely, so any higher top reversals made on the benchmark US index could put supply pressures on Nifty and restrict upside momentum in the shorter term
Both Realty and Telecom stocks were at the vanguard of the rally while FMCG and IT stocks faltered the most
Metal stocks also rose after Hindustan Zinc hit its highest level in a month after reporting a 25% jump in 2nd-quarter revenue
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 12,020 and 12,100 for Thursday
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,800 for Thursday
The BSE Sensex index closed up more than 100 points or 0.4% at 40,707 on Wednesday
Bank Nifty opened positive and headed towards the recent high of 24,823 but remained quite volatile during the day. It witnessed a smart recovery of 600 points in the latter half of the day to close the session at 24,635
India VIX moved up by 0.99% from 22.69 to 22.91 level
Broader market indices closed marginally higher on the day. The Midcap index closed with a modest rise of 0.25% while the smallcap index saw a muted trading session
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.36% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.80 – 3.80% as on Oct 20
Top private lender HDFC Bank advanced 1.87% to 1,247 while Britannia continued to decline for the second straight session as analysts cut their earnings estimates for the biscuit maker
Pune based Bajaj Finance reported a 36% drop in net profit to Rs 965 Crore for the Q2 FY21. Net interest income increased by 4% to Rs 4,165 Crore from Rs 4,000 Crore YoY, while AUM of 1.35 lakh Crore grew by just 1%
Americas
US stocks ended a volatile session slightly lower amid signals that an American fiscal stimulus package is unlikely to become law prior to next month’s election
Pelosi said she is hopeful that a comprehensive stimulus agreement might be reached later this week
The Dow Jones lost 98 points or -0.35% to 28,210
Nasdaq lost 32 points or -0.28% to 11,484
The S&P 500 dropped 7 points or -0.22% to 3435
Russel 1000 Index added -0.31%, touching 1,918
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 43 points or -0.26% to 16,230
Today in derivatives market, Dow futures lost 180 points or -0.64%, S&P 500 futures lost 24 points or -0.67% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 77 points or -0.67%
Fed’s Brainard called for more fiscal support amid ‘uneven’ recovery
Rising coronavirus infections remain in the spotlight, with the US reporting more than 60K new cases on Tuesday
On the corporate front, earnings from Abbott and Verizon beat forecasts while results for Netflix released after the closing bell on Tuesday missed forecasts
Energy producers were among the worst performers as oil fell toward $40 a barrel in New York
Social media firms fared better after Snap Inc. reported strong earnings, with Twitter Inc. and Facebook Inc. both up more than 5% at one point
Tesla Inc. rose ahead of financial results later Wednesday while Netflix Inc. sank the most since March after subscribers fell short of predictions
Asia-Pacific Markets
Markets in Asia-Pacific declined on Thursday after the International Monetary Fund downgraded the economic forecast for the region in 2020 to a contraction of (2.2%) amid a possible resurgence of the coronavirus and escalating US-China tensions
Adding to pessimism, Iran and Russia are attempting to interfere in the 2020 US election, while uncertainty over US stimulus plans also hit risk appetite
The Nikkei 225 dropped 185 points or -0.78% to 23,454 in early Thursday trade
Topix 500 dropped 14 points or -1.14% to 1,249 in early Thursday trade
South Korea’s Kospi dropped 18 points or -0.77% in morning trade at 2,352
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped 87 points or -0.35% to 24,667 in early Thursday trade
China’s CSI 300 Index dropped 49 points or -1.01% to 4,744 in early Thursday trade
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 47 points or -0.47% at 10,030 in early Thursday trade
Shanghai Composite Index dropped 34 points or nearly -1.03% at 3,290 in early Thursday trade
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 34 points or -0.55% to 6,157 in early trade
Australia’s main stock index extended losses for the third consecutive session on Thursday, with all eleven major sectors deep in the red
Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 2 points or -0.10% to 2,523
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is up 0.85%
Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai said on Wednesday the central bank must “Be prepared to take swift action, with a close eye both on the economy and the banking system” if the novel coronavirus pandemic takes longer than expected to contain
China’s fiscal revenue in the first three quarters of 2020 fell by 6.4% YoY
Cathay Pacific jumped 3.5% after the company announced that about 5,900 employees will be laid off as part of a restructuring plan
South Korea’s producer prices rose for the fourth straight month in September, gaining 0.1% from the previous month due largely to increased costs of agricultural, livestock and fishery goods
Singapore’s Ministry of Manpower announced a new Infection Prevention and Control programme which aims to curb the spread of future infectious diseases in dorms
EU Markets
European equities slumped to near three-week lows on Wednesday as mounting coronavirus concerns offset hopes of further stimulus in the US and upbeat corporate results
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index dropped -1.43% at 359 on Wednesday
Stoxx 50 dropped -1.46% to close at 3,180 on Wednesday
Germany’s DAX30 dropped 179 points or -1.49% at 12,557 on Wednesday
London’s FTSE 100 dropped 112 points or -1.91% to close at 5,776 on Wednesday
France’s CAC40 dropped 75 points, or -1.53% at 4,854
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index dropped 21 points or -1.49% at 1,387
Luxembourg’s LuxX Index dropped -0.39% at 1,070
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index dropped 21 points or -1.12% at 1,820
Italy’s FTSE MIB Index dropped 357 points or -1.83% at 19,125
Shares in Italy fell after the Lombardy region, including Milan, announced a curfew starting Thursday, to curb coronavirus spread after reporting a record daily of more than 4,000 on Wednesday
On the corporate front, shares of Ericsson jumped after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings while Nestle raised its guidance for 2020 organic sales growth to around 3% after beating third-quarter expectations
On the global front, investors continue to monitor any development on a new fiscal stimulus package in the US as negotiations between Democrats and White House officials continued
On the corporate side, shares of Centamin plunged after the gold miner reported falls in production and sales while Metro Bank stocks rose after it reported a 2% increase in lending for the third quarter
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
WTI and Brent crude dropped more than 3% and 2% respectively to trade under $42 a barrel on Wednesday
Data from the EIA showed crude oil stockpiles in the US fell by 1.001 million barrels last week, slightly less than market expectations of a 1.021 million barrels
Gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.895 million barrels, compared with forecasts of a 1.829 million drop
The liquified natural gas market is trading higher on the back of growing demand ahead of the upcoming winter season
WTI Crude is trading at $39.78 per barrel in early Thursday trade
Brent Crude is trading at $41.48 per barrel in early Thursday trade
Natural Gas futures added 0.60% in early Tuesday trade at $3.034 per mmbtu
On MCX-India, Crude oil futures dropped 3.12% to 2,950 in early Thursday trade
On MCX-India, Natural gas futures added 4.01% to 223 in early Thursday trade
Baker Hughes said that the demand recovery is beginning to level off and significant excess capacity remains, which could create volatility in the future
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold traded higher above $1,920 an ounce on Wednesday, having hit an over one-week high of $1,931 earlier in the session, propelled by a softer dollar and increasing hopes of an early stimulus package in the US
Gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish amid expectations of a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates coupled with the uncertainty over the economic recovery due to a recent spike in covid cases across major economies
US Gold futures (Comex) weakened to $1,916 an ounce in early Thursday trade
US Spot Gold weakened to $1,914 an ounce
Silver futures (Comex) weakened to $24.87 an ounce
In India, Spot Gold strengthened to INR 50,373 per 10 grams
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 0.08% trading at 1,183.45 ; with major gains in Chana and Guar Gum futures on Wednesday
Currency Markets
The dollar index weakened for the 4th straight session on Wednesday, the lowest on a closing basis since September 1 as optimism over further stimulus in the US lifted investors’ appetite for riskier assets and currencies
House Speaker Pelosi said she’s hopeful for a stimulus agreement before the weekend, which would be bigger, better and retroactive
The dollar has been weakening since mid-May and is down near 5% on the year amid rising optimism about the global economic recovery, specially a robust rebound in China
USD weakened on Wednesday, with currency index dropping -0.52% against its G-10 peers, at 92.583
INR weakened -0.17% with USD-INR at 73.5863
JPY strengthened -0.86% with USD-JPY at 104.5900
CNY strengthened 0.38% with USD-CNY at 6.6510
EUR strengthened 0.41% with EUR-USD at 1.1871
GBP strengthened 1.51% with GBP-USD at 1.3144
British pound hit a six-week high lifted by Brexit optimism and comments by Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden that said now was not the time to cut interest rates below zero
SEK strengthened 0.31% with USD-SEK at 8.7208
Bond Markets
Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : Up 2 basis points at 0.80%
Canada : Flat at 0.61%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : Up 1 basis point at -0.59%
United Kingdom : Up 5 basis points at 0.24%
France : Up 1 basis point at -0.32%
Netherlands : Up 2 basis points at -0.49%
Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
India : Down 2 basis points at 5.91%
Japan : Up 2 basis points at 0.02%
Australia : Up 4 basis point at 0.79%
Hong Kong : Flat at 0.37%
Singapore : Up 1 basis point at 0.84%
South Korea : Flat at 1.45%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Oct 21 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Buy Rs 2,108.48 Cr in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs -1,633.53 Cr in Cash Market
