Finance - Stock Market Forecast

Index Trend & Conditions – 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.

• Resistance for Nifty 50 is at 13,630 — 13,730 zone. For Monday, Dec 14, Support area is seen at 13,400 and 13,330

• Support levels for Bank Nifty is at 30,200 and 29,750 ; while Resistance is seen at 31,300 and 31,375

• The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan is up 0.08%, while the MSCI Emerging Market index is down -0.05%

• Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a gap-up opening with positive outlook for Nifty 50 in India. The Nifty futures are trading 0.40% higher at 13,589 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.

• Contracts tied to U.S. futures climbed on the day, with S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures trading in green, alongside a positive Asia-Pacific early Monday morning trade, a positive MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index, a weakening U.S. Dollar Index at 90.805 with 10-Year Treasury Yield edging higher at 0.908 and Gold futures steady at $1,836 on the day indicate a positive outlook for Nifty 50 India

• Investors are tracking the deployment of the first Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S. and the continuation of talks over a $908 billion relief bill on Monday

India Markets

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NIFTY 50	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE
Friday	13,512	13,579	13,402	13,513

India stocks slightly changed on Friday trade after making a life-high of 13,579

Nifty 50 dropped 35 points or 0.26% to 13,513, while the BSE Sensex dropped 139 points or 0.30% to 46,099

The index formed and indecisive Doji Candle with long lower shadow on the daily scale for the second straight day. On the weekly scale, the index formed a bullish candle and continued with its higher high higher low formation for yet another week

A Doji candle with long lower shadow indicates absence of momentum at the higher levels, but it also suggests that declines are being bought into

Domestic market witnessed yet another heavy buying in FMCG, Financials and Energy counters by FIIs

Most broader markets under-performed their headline peers — Midcap 100 index added 0.22% ; Smallcap 250 index added 0.51% ; Nifty 500 added 0.27% ; Nifty Alpha 50 added 0.23% and Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 stayed unchanged

On Sectoral Indices front, PSU Bank, Metal and FMCG stocks were at the vanguard of the rally, while Pharma and IT stocks were the laggards on the day

Nifty P/E for Dec 11, 2020 is at 37.16, as recorded by NSE India

Bank Nifty opened positive but continued to move southward for most part of the session. However, it witnessed a good recovery in the last hour of the session. The index formed a Doji candle on the daily scale, adding 94 points or 0.31% to 30,604

India VIX appreciated 0.41% from 18.71 to 18.79 levels. Lower volatility would suggest the bulls are getting a grip on the market and any decline may trigger buying in the market

Overnight Call Money rate weighted average stood at 3.16% as per RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.90 — 3.50% for Dec 10

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Government Bonds fell to 5.822%, while the rupee weakened to 73.7360 per U.S. dollar

On the stocks front, shares of budget carrier SpiceJet and cold chain logistics company Snowman Logistics gained after the two signed a pact for the transportation of Covid-19 vaccine

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to a eight-month high of 3.6% in October on the back of recovery in manufacturing, consumer goods and power sectors, registering growth for the second straight month. The manufacturing sector, which has a weightage of 77.6% in the IIP, recorded a growth of 3.5% in October. The consumer durables segment, which mainly includes white goods, posted an impressive growth of 17.6 per cent in October. Electricity generation sector recorded an impressive growth of 11.2% in October while output of mining sector contracted by 1.5% during the same period

On the coronavirus front, domestic regulators are considering three vaccines for emergency use authorisation (EUA), including those from Pfizer Inc., AstraZeneca and Bharat Biotech. Government is also in talks with Moderna, which also has requirements for ultra-cold storage

America Markets

Democrats and Republicans hung up on differences for $900 billion stimulus measure

Wall Street stocks pared losses on Friday trade, as lawmakers passed a stopgap spending bill to avert a federal-government shutdown, but gave no signals of an imminent stimulus deal

The Dow Jones added 47 points or 0.16% to 30,046 and the S&P 500 lost 4 points or -0.13% to 3,663 ; while the Nasdaq dropped 28 points, or -0.23% to 12,377

Contracts tied to U.S. futures climbed in early Monday trade. S&P500 futures is up 0.53%, Dow Jones futures is up 0.60% and Nasdaq futures is up 0.41%

Yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 0.908, providing a boost to non-interest-bearing gold

On the stocks front, Walt Disney Co. soared to an all-time high after a bold forecast for its new streaming services, while Facebook and Tesla paced declines

The U.S. FDA has granted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech, the New York Times first reported on Friday night

U.S. consumers grew more confident in the economy in late November and early December. The University of Michigan said Friday its index of consumer sentiment climbed to 81.4 in the two weeks ended Dec. 9, from 76.9 in November. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a reading of 75.5

While Republicans and Democrats are closer on a price tag for a stimulus measure — coalescing around $900 billion — they’re hung up on differences over shielding companies from virus-related lawsuits

Federal Reserve in Washington is scheduled for a discussion for more stimulus to support the U.S. economy, as it holds its final policy meeting on Wednesday, amid a marked slowdown in the labor market. Officials will also update quarterly forecasts for economic growth, unemployment, inflation and for their target interest rate, which is expected to stay near zero through 2023

The U.S. budget deficit widened 25% in October and November from the same period last year to $429 billion. Higher spending and shrinking revenue amid economic downturn has pushed the deficit higher. Federal spending rose 9% to $887 billion during October and November YoY, while revenue declined 3% to $457 billion

Asia-Pacific Markets

A pharmacist labels syringes of COVID-19 vaccines

Asian stocks climbed higher in early Monday trade, as investors took comfort in the deployment of the first Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.64% to 26,823, with Topix 500 added 1.27% to 1,400

South Korea’s Kospi unchanged at a life high of 2,770

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng added 0.05% to 26,525 while Hang Seng China Enterprises added 0.32% to 10,483

In China, CSI 300 added 0.37% to 4,908 and Shanghai Composite added 0.32% to 3,358

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.51% to 6,676

Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 1.38% to 2,860

Overall, MSCI Asia-Pacific, was up 0.33% last week’s close

Hyundai takes a controlling stake, 80% in an iconic robotics company, Boston Dynamics, at a valuation of $1.1 billion. Boston Robotics is behind a number of impressive robots, including the dog-like quadruped Spot. Over the past decade, it’s changed ownership several times, with Google acquiring it in 2013, then selling it to Japanese investment giant SoftBank in 2017

Vietnam and the U.K. concluded a free-trade agreement that will see 99% of tariffs between the two countries eliminated after seven years. Vietnam will see 114 million pounds ($151 million) in tariff savings on its exports, while the U.K. stands to save 36 million pounds on its exports. The U.K. is Vietnam’s third-largest trading partner in Europe

EU Markets

U.K. Headquartered Arrival Electric Bus Aimed at Socially Distanced Travel

European equities fell on Friday trade, as the prospect of new restrictive measures in Germany and the lack of progress in Brexit negotiations worried investors

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 dropped -0.92% to 389 and Stoxx 50 dropped -1.04% to close at 3,485

Germany’s DAX30 dropped -1.36% to 13,301

London’s FTSE 100 dropped -0.80% to close to 6,546

France’s CAC40 dropped -0.76% to 5,507

Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 added 0.27% to 1,398

Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped -0.97% at 21,702

Europe urged to block Google—Fitbit merger ahead of major digital policy overhaul. Shoshana Zuboff, the Harvard professor who wrote the defining book on surveillance capitalism, has become the latest voice raised against the $2.1 billion deal

Gorillas, the on-demand grocery delivery startup has been taking Berlin by storm, has raised $44M Series A — Gorillas delivers groceries within an average of 10 minutes

Sweden’s Tink raises $103M as its open banking platform grows to 3,400 banks and 250M customers — Tink aggregates a number of banks and financial services by way of an API

U.K. space launch startup Orbex raises $24 million for its reusable rockets, led by BGF and Octopus Ventures. The startup is already in the process of building out its first Prime rockets, at two factories it operates in Scotland and in Denmark. The company uses 3D-printing heavily in its rocket fabrication process. It has raised around $63 million to date, with its last round of around $39 million announced in 2018

U.K. based AstraZeneca Plc agreed to buy Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. for $39 billion in cash and shares. Acquiring Alexion would bolster AstraZeneca in areas such as the treatment of blood disorders, further entrenching its position in the treatment of rare diseases and immunology

Italy‘s government sits on one of the largest debt loads as a percentage of output in the euro area and is pushing to keep debt costs lower amid the pandemic. Italy has been buying back short-dated notes and exchanging them for new longer-dated securities, spreading out the burden on its obligations. The country has sold over 100 billion euros more of longer-maturity bonds this year than originally planned, thanks to the European Central Bank’s bond buying program

Oil & Natural Gas Markets

Crude oil managed to eke out a sixth weekly gain and looked set for upside in early Monday trade, as progress on the vaccine front acted as a silver bullet amid dimmed chances of a stimulus relief

With the market outlook improving, global consumption of gasoline and diesel rose to a two-month high on week ended 05 Dec. Buying is seen by Chinese and Indian refiners

WTI Crude is trading higher at $46.62 per barrel

Brent Crude is trading higher at $50.04 per barrel

Natural Gas futures is edging up $2.603/MMBtu

On MCX-India, Crude oil futures declined to 3,439 on Friday trade

On MCX-India, Natural gas futures appreciated to 191/MMBtu on Friday trade

“A pullback was largely expected after Brent’s rally above $50 earlier in the week, with a key technical benchmark settling in overbought territory on Thursday,” said Bloomberg analysts

Commodities Markets

Gold booked its second weekly gains and looked set for appreciation in early Monday trade.

“Bullion’s rise on dimmed stimulus prospects marks a turn from recent weeks, when the outlook for more aid stoked demand for the metal as an inflation hedge. Now, the possibility of a hit to the recovery from the impasse is overriding that bet, fueling demand for gold as a store of value,” said Bob Haberkorn at RJO Futures

U.S. Gold futures (Comex) steady at $1,837.50 an ounce

Silver futures (Comex) steady at $24.06 an ounce

Copper futures (Comex) strengthened to $3.5515 per pound

In India, Spot Gold weakened to INR 48,324 per 10 grams

India — NCDEX Agridex

Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was down -0.97% trading at 1,145.90 ; with top gains in Guar Seed and Chana futures, while Ref Soya Oil and Mustardseed futures led losses on Friday trade

Currency Markets

The U.S. dollar index, DXY weakened in early Monday trade at 90.805

INR appreciated with USD / INR at 73.6500

JPY appreciated with USD / JPY at 104.0400

CNY declined with USD / CNY at 6.5462

EUR declined with EUR / USD at 1.2112

EUR declined with EUR / GBP at 0.9111

The pound climbed after Brexit talks were extended past a Sunday deadline. The pound, the most Brexit-sensitive asset, is already some 4% undervalued against the euro this year

The pound has danced to the tune of Brexit developments since June 2016

“We will move on from Brexit soon,” said Mark Nash, head of fixed income alternatives at Jupiter Asset Management. “When the market is already priced for a bare-bones deal, then there’s not much further to go.”

*3-Month LIBOR Rate*	*As on 11 Dec 2020*
US DOLLAR	0.22 per cent
Euro	– 0.57 per cent
British Pound	0.04 per cent
Swiss Franc	– 0.79 per cent
Japanese Yen	– 0.10 per cent