Finance - Stock Market Forecast

Index Trend & Conditions – 08:20 a.m. I.S.T.

• Resistance area for Nifty 50 is at 13,055 and 13,137. For Tuesday, Dec 01, Support area is seen at 12,950 and 12,750

• Resistance area for Bank Nifty at 29,750 and 30,000, while Support area is at 28,900 and 28,270

• The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan is up 0.87% in early Tuesday trade, while the MSCI Emerging Market index is up 0.75%

• Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a muted outlook for Nifty 50 in India with 03 points loss. The Nifty futures were trading at 12,990 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:20 a.m. I.S.T.

• Contracts tied to U.S. futures opened higher on the day with S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures trading in green. A positive Asia-Pacific early morning trade and a weakening U.S. dollar with rising 10-Year Treasuries indicate a stable-to-negative outlook for Nifty 50 India

• The current mood in the market is bracing and non-committal

India Markets

NIFTY 50	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE
Friday	13,012	13,035	12,914	12,968

Domestic equity markets were closed for a holiday on Monday

Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex rose more than 11% each in November, best rally since April 2020

Broader markets however outperformed their headline peers for November — Midcap 100 index rose 15.5% ; Smallcap 250 index added 13% ; Nifty 500 added 12% ; Nifty Alpha 50 added 11% while Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 only added 5%

Nifty P/E for November 2020 climbed from 31.43 to 35.66, surging 13.4% for the month, as recorded by NSE India

Bank Nifty climbed 24% in November, best rally since May 2009. For this week, 28,900 and 28,270 to act as good support levels. Resistance area is seen at 29,750 — 30,000

India VIX slipped -20% in November from 24.75 to 19.81 levels

The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond is at 5.912%, while the rupee weakened on Tuesday trade at 73.9900 against the U.S. dollar

America Markets

U.S. stocks fell from records on Monday trade as investors assessed valuations with pandemic still raging in parts of Europe and the U.S.

The Dow Jones lost 272 points or -0.91% to 29,638 and the S&P 500 dropped 16 points or -0.46% to 3,621 ; while the Nasdaq dropped 7 points or 0.06% to 12,198

Contracts tied to U.S. futures opened higher in early Tuesday trade. S&P500 futures is up 0.83%, Dow Jones futures is up 0.76% whereas Nasdaq futures is up 0.91%

S&P Global Inc. has agreed to buy IHS Markit Ltd. for about $44 billion, combining two of the biggest data providers for Wall Street. IHS Markit, which provides data, analytics and research was valued at $36.9 billion as of the close on Friday

White House has added 4 Chinese companies namely, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., SMIC and China National Offshore Oil Corp., CNOOC along with China Construction Technology Co., CCTC and China International Engineering Consulting Corp., CIECC to the list of Chinese companies owned and controlled by military, making the total blacklist to 35

Facebook Inc., is nearing a deal to buy Kustomer, a startup that specializes in customer-service platforms and chatbots, at a valuation of a little over $1 billion

Asia-Pacific Markets

Stocks in Asia traded higher in early Tuesday trade as investors shrugged off an overnight slide in U.S. equities and once again embraced risk assets after an unprecedented month of gains

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.45% to 26,817, with Topix 500 adding 0.86% to 1,375

South Korea’s Kospi added 0.99% at 2,617

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng added 0.57% to 26,490 while Hang Seng China Enterprises added 0.70% to 10,620

In China, CSI 300 added 0.70% to 4,994 and Shanghai Composite added 0.37% to 3,404

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 1.28% to 6,601

Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.07% to 2,801

Overall, MSCI Asia-Pacific, sank -2.01% on Monday, the biggest loss in a month

Shares tanked in China on Monday trade after investors retreated following a news that the Trump administration was poised to add China’s 3rd biggest oil company, CNOOC and semiconductor co., SMIC to a sanctions list

China’s factory index, an official gauge of activity in China’s manufacturing sector, surged to 3-year high on strong demand, rising to 52.1 in November from 51.4 in the previous month

The data suggest China’s steady recovery momentum continued into the last quarter of the year, with manufacturing holding up despite sporadic outbreaks of coronavirus in China

China is rolling out measures to support domestic consumption, including of autos and home appliances, helping to underpin the recovery

Australia’s Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. unveiled an emergency plan to find new markets for its best-known labels after China imposed crippling anti-dumping duties of 169% on its wine over the weekend. China’s wealthy and emerging middle class represented approximately 30% of its total earnings last fiscal year. CEO Tim Ford said he’s also accelerating a drive to produce more wine in other countries such as France, and potentially China, to avoid the made-in-Australia duties

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to hold a policy meeting on Tuesday

Tokyo Stock Exchange CEO Koichiro Miyahara resigned on Monday, Nov 30, two months after computer problems caused one of the world’s largest markets to halt trading for a full day

“The recovery in manufacturing is still uneven,” according to Zhao Qinghe, an economist with the statistics bureau in China. “Some businesses said profits and export orders are coming under pressure because of the stronger yuan.”

EU Markets

European stocks steadied on the last day of the month on Monday trade, as investors paused for breath after a strong week and month

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.08% to 393, surging 15.04% in November

Stoxx 600’s November rally has added $1.7 trillion to the market value of its members

Stoxx 50 added 0.24% to close at 3,536

Germany’s DAX30 added 0.74% to 13,434 , recording the best monthly performance since 2003

London’s FTSE 100 added 0.01% to close to 6,368

France’s CAC40 dropped -0.06% to 5,594 , after surging more than 20% on the month

Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 added 0.87% to 1,413

Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 0.07% at 1,256

Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 dropped -0.41% at 1,929

Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped -0.21% at 24,219

German Economy Minister Altmaier said that the number of COVID-19 cases is still much too high in most German regions and people must do more to reduce their contacts to slow the spread of the disease

Oil & Natural Gas Markets

Oil slid in early Tuesday trade after a panel of OPEC+ ministers failed to reach an agreement on supply before a full meeting

WTI Crude is trading lower at $44.95 per barrel in early Tuesday trade

Brent Crude is trading lower at $47.52 per barrel in early Tuesday trade

Natural Gas futures is trading higher at $2.944/MMBtu in early Tuesday trade

On MCX-India, Crude oil futures dropped -1.13% to 3,326 on Monday trade

On MCX-India, Natural gas futures climbed 2.75% to 216/MMBtu on Monday trade

Gold & Silver Markets (+ Copper Futures)

Gold is on course for its largest monthly decline in four years, in early Tuesday trade

Meanwhile, Copper surged to a seven-year high, again, in early Tuesday trade

U.S. Gold futures (Comex) strengthened to $1,784.50 an ounce

U.S. Spot Gold strengthened to $1,781.56 an ounce

Silver futures (Comex) strengthened to $22.88 an ounce

Copper futures (Comex) unchanged at $3.4750 per pound — highest since 2014

Copper is seen as a Bellweather for the global economy & an important part of the transition to low-carbon energy resources. On Friday, data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed copper stockpiles in its warehouses falling to the lowest since late 2014

In India, Spot Gold weakened to INR 47,107 per 10 grams

India — NCDEX Agridex

Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 1.21% trading at 1,192.90 ; with major demand in Ref Soya Oil, Coriander and Cotton Seed Oilcake futures on Friday trade

Currency Markets

The U.S. dollar index, DXY extended its slide, trading at 91.837 in early Tuesday trade. The dollar is poised for a -2.3% drop in November

INR weakened -0.22% with USD — INR at 74.0475

JPY weakened -0.06% with USD — JPY at 104.1500

CNY strengthened 0.01% with USD — CNY at 6.5776

EUR strengthened 0.25% with EUR — USD at 1.1993

GBP strengthened 0.49% with GBP — USD at 1.3376

SEK strengthened 0.20% with USD — SEK at 8.4821

*3-Month LIBOR Rate*	*As on 30 Nov 2020*
US DOLLAR	0.22 per cent
Euro	– 0.55 per cent
British Pound	0.04 per cent
Swiss Franc	– 0.77 per cent
Japanese Yen	– 0.12 per cent