Index Trend & Conditions – 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.
• For Thursday, Feb. 11, Support area for Nifty 50 will be at 15,045 and 14,878
• Resistance zone for Bank Nifty is at 36,208 and 36,615 for Feb. 11
• The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan is trading lower -0.15%, and the MSCI Emerging Market index is down -0.15%
• Trends on SGX Nifty look poised to churn lower for Nifty 50 in India. The Nifty futures are trading 70 points, or -0.46% lower at 15,068 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.
• U.S. equity futures dipped in early morning trade with S&P 500 and Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures trading in red; alongside a lower start to Asia-Pacific benchmarks gauges in early Thursday trade; a negative MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index; U.S. Dollar little changed at 90.44 with rising 10-Yr Treasury Yields at 1.14% and Gold futures slipping to $1,837 on the day indicate cautious outlook for Nifty 50 India
India Markets
| NIFTY 50 | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 15,119 | 15,168 | 14,977 | 15,106 |
India’s equity benchmarks wavered on Wednesday trade, another sign that investors are taking a breather after pushing markets to record highs and with back-to-back indecisive candles seen on Nifty’s daily chart
The blue-chip NSE Nifty 50 index dropped 2.80 points or -0.02% at 15,106 and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex lost 20 points or -0.04% at 51,309
Realty, Pharma and Auto sectors outperformed on the day
Broader markets out-performed headline peers — Midcap 100 index added 0.79%; Smallcap 250 index added 0.41% and Nifty 500 added 0.15%
Nifty P/E for Feb 10 2021 decreased from 41.97 to 41.81, and Nifty P/B stayed unchanged at 4.28, as recorded by NSE India
Bank Nifty continues to drop for four consecutive sessions after making a high of 36,615 on 05 Feb. The index has dropped 273 points, or -0.76%, to 35,783
India VIX or Fear gauge decreased -1.31% from 24.27 to 23.95 levels. It needs to cool down and hold below 21 level for a continuation in the ongoing momentum
Overnight Call Money rate weighted average stood at 3.24% as per RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.90 — 3.50% for Feb 09
Yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond dropped to 6.08%, while the rupee strengthened to 72.8200 per U.S. dollar
Monthly disclosure by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed investors poured 366.44 crore rupees in credit risk funds in January after nine months of abstinence. During these months, this category of funds saw net withdrawal of 56,317 crore rupees
Gold funds continue to grow in assets under management. While gold ETFs received a net inflow of 431 crore rupees in December, in January it was even higher at 624.87 crore rupees. From January 2019 till January 2021, this fund category has received a robust net inflow of 48,159.4 crore rupees, as to hedge against tough market conditions and economic downturns
“In line with the interest rate scenario in the country, investors continue to focus on fixed income categories having short to medium duration profiles. Hence, categories such as Short Duration, Medium Duration, Corporate Bonds and Banking and PSU Funds continued to receive robust investments,” said Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director for Manager Research at Morningstar India
America Markets
Wall Street’s main indexes pared morning gains and finished mixed on Wednesday trade, as investors await earnings results from a number of companies
The broad-based S&P 500 slipped 1.35 points, less than 0.1%, to 3,909
With nearly 70% of the S&P 500 already reporting earnings, profits for the group are up 5.1%, better than an expected contraction of 9.2%, according to FactSet. That is also a vast improvement from the third quarter’s 5.6% profit contraction. First-quarter earnings are expected to rise 21%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, composed mostly of cyclical stocks, rose 61 points, or 0.2%, to 31,437, eclipsing the record it set Monday
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index lost 35 points, or -0.25%, to 13,972
U.S. equity futures pulled back in early Thursday trade. S&P500 futures is down -0.14%; Dow Jones futures is down -0.10% and Nasdaq futures is down -0.10%
10-yr U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to the price, ticked higher to 1.14% on the day, with dollar little changed at 90.44
The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose 1.66% to 21.99 on Wednesday
Annual inflation rate in the U.S. stood at 1.4% in Jan. 2021, unchanged from the previous month and below market expectations of 1.5%. The rate remained also below the Federal Reserve’s target of about 2% for an eleventh straight month. The monthly rate edged up to 0.3%, matching forecasts, mainly due to a 7.4% jump in gasoline prices
Mortgage applications in the U.S. fell 4.1% in the week ended Feb. 5th, following an 8.1% jump in the previous week
Among individual stocks, earnings from Cisco, Lyft, Mattel, Twitter, Coca-Cola, Under Armour and General Motors came higher-than-expected although the vehicle manufacturer warned could cut 2021 earnings
In a speech Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market remains a long way from a full recovery and called on both lawmakers and the private sector to support workers
“Given the number of people who have lost their jobs and the likelihood that some will struggle to find work in the post-pandemic economy, achieving and sustaining maximum employment will require more than supportive monetary policy,” Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York. “It will require a society-wide commitment, with contributions from across government and the private sector.”
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian benchmark stocks mostly lower in early Thursday trade with some major markets closed for lunar holidays
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix 500 are closed for a holiday
South Korea’s Kospi is closed for a holiday
In Hong Kong, Hang Seng dropped -0.40% to 29,912 while Hang Seng China Enterprises dropped -0.53% to 11,746
In China, CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite are closed for a holiday
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped -0.08% to 6,851
The consumer price index in China unexpectedly dropped by 0.3% year-on-year in Jan. 2021, after a 0.2% gain a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a flat reading
South Korea’s jobless rate surged to its highest in more than two decades, raising concern that an export-driven recovery could be masking a harsher scarring of the economy
EU Markets
European equities rose on Wednesday trade, as upbeat earnings reports from firms including SocGen helped boost optimism around a broader economic rebound, while shipping company Maersk slumped after its quarterly profit missed estimates
The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 dropped -0.34% to 407 and Stoxx 50 dropped -0.35% to close at 3,648
Germany’s DAX30 dropped -0.56% to 13,932
London’s blue-chip FTSE 100 dropped -0.11% to 6,524
France’s CAC40 dropped -0.36% to 5,670
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 dropped -1.49% to 1,437
Spain’s IBEX 35 dropped -0.44% to 8,065
Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped -0.15% to 23,264
Germany is expected to announce later Wednesday an extension to the current lockdown by an extra month until Mar. 14th, due to worries over the spread of more contagious variants of the virus
Sweden will set monetary policy on Wednesday while Bank of Russia’s policy decision is up on Friday
“There is this view that Europe is getting a bump in business investment which I think is right, because when that consumer spending is unleashed, it will lift corporate profits, which have so far been the field indicators of business investments,” said Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
Crude-oil prices eases in early Thursday trade, hovering around their highest levels since January 2020
On the data front, both the EIA and API reported an unexpected draw in US crude stockpiles in the week ended Feb. 5th. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is unilaterally reducing supply in February and March
WTI Crude is trading higher at $58.28 per barrel
Brent Crude, the international benchmark for oil, is trading higher at $61.06 per barrel
Natural Gas futures is trading higher at $2.967/MMBtu
“If there was one thing to be concerned about, it was that gasoline inventories built,” said Brian Kessens, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets.
Commodities Markets
Gold futures dipped in early Thursday trade, consolidating the rebound from a two-month low of $1,784 an ounce as the dollar eased further following weaker than expected inflation data for the US
A pick-up in risk appetite may dent gold’s appeal, the threats posed by record-high debt levels should drive prices higher in the long-run
U.S. Gold futures (Comex) is trading lower at $1,837 an ounce
Silver futures (Comex) is trading lower at $26.81 an ounce
Copper futures (Comex) is trading higher at $3.7535 per pound, a level not seen since Feb 2013
SGX Iron-Ore futures is trading higher at $160.85 per tonne
In India, Spot Gold is trading at INR 47,811 per 10 grams
Currency Markets
U.S. dollar index, DXY came under heavy selling pressure this week, little changed at 90.44 in early Thursday trade
INR strengthened with USD / INR at 72.8200
JPY weakened with USD / JPY at 104.6800
CNY weakened with USD / CNY at 6.4582
EUR strengthened with EUR / USD at 1.2131
GBP strengthened with EUR / GBP at 0.8763
GBP strengthened with GBP / USD at 1.3843
| 3-Month LIBOR Rate | As on 10 Feb 2021 |
| US DOLLAR | 0.20 per cent |
| Euro | – 0.54 per cent |
| British Pound | 0.05 per cent |
| Swiss Franc | – 0.76 per cent |
| Japanese Yen | – 0.09 per cent |
Bitcoin
Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar dropped -0.57% in early Thursday trade to $44,614 as of 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.
While Bitcoin is gaining traction among big league financial players like Elon Musk – who announced Monday that Tesla added the token to its balance sheet – Wednesday’s losses underscore the speculative and volatile nature of the coin
Bitcoin fell as much as 7.5% on Wednesday to $43,764 after surging past $48,000 earlier this week
Bond Markets
Americas : 10 – Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : 1.14%
Canada : 1.00%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10 – Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : -0.44%
United Kingdom : 0.48%
France : -0.22%
Italy : 0.50%
Netherlands : -0.32%
Asia Pacific : 10 – Year Govt Bond Yields
India : 6.08%
Japan : 0.07%
Australia : 1.22%
Hong Kong : 0.72%
Singapore : 1.03%
South Korea : 1.83%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI — 10 Feb 2021
FII/FPI Net Buy Rs 1,786.97 Crore in Capital Market
DII Net Sell Rs (2,075.68) Crore in Capital Market
Where We’ve Been Reading —
- Bloomberg
- The Wall Street Journal
- Reuters
- Trading Economics
- Axios
- Tech Crunch
- NSE Indices India
- Morningstar India
- The Star
- The Washington Post
- Harvard Business Review
- Business Standard
- The Economic Times
