Finance - Stock Market Analysis

Index Trend & Conditions | 08:40 IST

• Major Resistance seen at 12,820—12,850 area for Nifty50

• For Thursday, Nov 12, Support at 12,450 and 12,345 with Resistance at 12,768 and 12,822 for Nifty50

• Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative start for Nifty50 in India with a 52 points loss. The Nifty futures were trading at 12,743 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:40 IST

• Contracts tied to S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading in red in early Thursday morning, a positive outlook of Asia-Pacific early morning trade, MSCI APAC ex-Japan up 0.61% on the day and a strengthening US dollar with dropping 10-Year Treasuries indicate a negative outlook for Nifty 50 India

• The current mood in the market is bracing and non-committal

India Markets

NIFTY 50	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE
Wednesday	12,680	12,769	12,571	12,749

Nifty opened with a gap-up on Wednesday for the 5th-straight session and hit a fresh record high as it entered deeper into the overbought zone

Nifty50 added 118 points or 0.93% on Wednesday to close at 12,749

The index is strongly shadowing the US benchmark indices, mainly the Dow Jones index, which has witnessed a strong resistance at 29,534 on Monday

Nifty breadth was positive with 47 out of Nifty50 constituents settling in the green

The index formed a bullish candle on the daily scale with a long lower shadow on the daily scale which indicates that bulls have a tight grip on the market

PSU Bank stocks were the worst performers in today’s session, while Pharma and Metal stocks were at the vanguard of the rally

Nifty P/E for Nov 11, 2020 is at 34.50, as recorded by NSE India

On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 12,768 and 12,822 for Thursday

While, on the downside, support is seen at 12,450 and 12,345 for Thursday

The BSE Sensex index gained 316 points or 0.73% to 42,597 on Wednesday

Bank Nifty opened positive and continued its upward movement towards 29,000 level, in spite of consolidation in some of the banking stocks

The index formed a small body candle on the daily scale, but has been making higher highs and lows from last eight sessions

Nifty futures closed positive at 12,764 level with 0.84% gain

India VIX rose 2.10% from 21.57 to 22.03 level due to higher implied volatility in Calls

Broader market indices ended high on the day. The Midcap index advanced 0.37% while the smallcap index added 0.55%

The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.13% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.80—3.50% as on Nov 10

Adding to positive sentiment to the Indian Markets was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party retaining control through a coalition in the eastern state of Bihar in its first election since the pandemic struck

As on Nov 10, 2020 MSCI has made the following changes in constituents for MSCI India’s Index in the MSCI Global Standard Indexes which will take place as of the close of Nov 30, 2020

Additions	Deletions
ACC	BOSCH
Adani Green Energy	LIC Housing Finance
Balkrishna Industries
IPCA Laboratories
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Larsen and Turbo Info
MRF
Muthoot Finance
PI Industries
Trent
Yes Bank
Apollo Hospitals

As on Nov 10, 2020 MSCI has made the following changes in constituents for MSCI India Domestic Index and MSCI India Domestic Small Cap Index, respectively, which will take place as of the close of Nov 30, 2020

MSCI_Nov20_India_Domestic_Index Download

MSCI_Nov20_India_Domestic_Smallcap_Index Download

India approved an incentive program worth $20 billion to attract companies to set up manufacturing in the South Asian nation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said

“Indian government will offer production-linked incentives to 10 sectors including automobile, solar panel and specialty-steel makers over a 5-year period,” FM Nirmala Sitharaman said after a meeting of a ministerial panel on Wednesday. “Textile units, food processing plants and specialized pharmaceutical product makers are also eligible for the incentives. The plan will help India become a global manufacturing hub.”
“Achieving share of manufacturing to 25% of economy, from about 16% currently, is certainly imperative to increasing employment opportunities,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, vice chancellor of Bengaluru Dr. B.R. Ambedkar School of Economics University.”

America Markets

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday with the Dow Jones inching down, as sentiment continued to be nudged by coronavirus vaccine expectations and investors returned to tech shares

The Dow Jones lost 23 points or -0.1% to 29,398

The S&P 500 gained 27 points or 0.8% to 3,573

the Nasdaq rose 233 points or 2.0% to 11,786

Today in derivatives market, Contracts tied to the S&P 500 have are down -0.32% while Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped -0.40%

On the coronavirus front, US reported a single-day record of more than 130,000 new cases on Tuesday and the number of hospitalizations surpassed its April peak

U.S. CPI data for October is due on Thursday

“European Union was among the first in line to remind President-elect Joe Biden of trans-Atlantic trade relations — the new tariffs on $4 billion worth of US Imports a move taken with the blessing of the World Trade Organization after the EU won a case in Geneva against illegal subsidies to Boeing Co.”

“European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are among the speakers Thursday at an online ECB Forum entitled “Central Banks in a Shifting World.”

“US maintains its hostile form towards China’s manufacturers even under Joe Biden, underscoring a deep mistrust. US tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods will be retained, as will strict restrictions on technology and investment. This is the emerging view of Chinese factory bosses when interviewed by Bloomberg News.
However, China’s exports expanded faster than expected in October, with shipments to the U.S. alone jumping 22.5%.”

Asia-Pacific Markets

The global stock rally showed signs of stalling in Asia on Thursday as investors assess a deteriorating coronavirus situation in many large economies around the world and indicators of overheated equity markets

The Nikkei 225 added 0.43% to 25,459 in early Thursday trade

Topix 500 dropped -0.23% to 1,336 in early Thursday trade

South Korea’s Kospi dropped -0.11% to 2,483 in early Thursday trade

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped -0.06% to 26,211 in early Thursday trade

China’s CSI 300 Index added 0.08% at 4,908 in early Thursday trade

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.45% to 10,589 in early Thursday trade

Shanghai Composite Index dropped -0.11% at 3,338 in early Thursday trade

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped -0.22% to 6,435 in early Thursday trade

Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.03% to 2,713 in early Thursday trade

Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is up 0.61%

Japan’s strong corporate earnings for several companies including DeNa and a weaker yen are supporting the bull run

The Japanese government is considering exempting visitors from overseas who will attend next summer’s Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics from the nation’s 14-day quarantine period

Core machinery orders in Japan, which exclude those for ships and from electric power companies, declined -4.4% month-over-month in September 2020 after rising 0.2% in the previous month

On Tuesday, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation issued draft guidelines aimed at preventing monopolistic behavior on internet platforms and ensure fair competition, a move that will increase scrutiny on companies such as Alibaba

“In Australia, market participants cheered news that Australians could start receiving virus vaccinations from March next year as the federal government’s vaccination program timeline is on track.”

EU Markets

European shares traded higher in afternoon trading on Wednesday

ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at additional stimulus as soon as December as downside risks to the economy have increased and the impact of the pandemic is now likely to continue to weigh on economic activity well into 2021

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 0.86% to 387 on Wednesday

Stoxx 50 added 0.77% to close at 3,469 on Wednesday

Germany’s DAX30 added 0.44% to 13,221 on Wednesday

London’s FTSE 100 added 1.29% to close to 6,378 on Wednesday

France’s CAC40 added 0.45% to 5,443 on Wednesday

Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index dropped 1.58% to 1,398 on Wednesday

Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 0.90% at 1,205 on Wednesday

Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index added 0.90% at 1,902 on Wednesday

Italy’s FTSE MIB Index added 0.68% at 20,992 on Wednesday

Italy’s government imposed today on Wednesday, limits on movement in at least five regions — central regions of Abruzzo, Umbria and Tuscany, as well as Basilicata in the south and Liguria on the coast, as the number of infections in the country approaches 1 million

Oil & Natural Gas Markets

Oil rallied on Wednesday with a bullish undertone that a potential coronavirus vaccine will boost demand, offsetting immediate concerns over growing virus lockdowns

WTI crude futures were up more than 2% to trade around $42.4 a barrel on Wednesday

Brent crude futures were up nearly 3% to trade slightly below $45 a barrel on Wednesday

Supporting prices further were comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, who said that OPEC+ could tweak their supply cut pact if demand slumps before the vaccine is available

Natural gas futures added 0.27% to $2.982/MMBtu on Wednesday

WTI Crude is trading higher at $41.79 per barrel in early Thursday trade

Brent Crude is trading higher at $44.10 per barrel in early Thursday trade

Natural Gas futures is trading higher at $3.049 per mmbtu in early Thursday trade

On MCX-India, Crude oil futures added 2.16% to 3,124 on Wednesday’s session

On MCX-India, Natural gas futures dropped -0.32% to 219 on Wednesday’s session

Gold & Silver Markets (+ copper futures)

Gold sank near -1% to $1860 an ounce on Wednesday, as the dollar strengthened

Outlook for 2021 and beyond remains bullish for the gold market, as it will take some time for a vaccine to be deployed and for the economy to recover

Silver declined more than 0.10% to $24.1 an ounce on Wednesday

Copper futures weakened to $3.1235 per pound on Wednesday

US Gold futures (Comex) strengthened to $1,868.10 an ounce in early Thursday trade

US Spot Gold strengthened to $1,870.76 an ounce in early Thursday trade

Silver futures (Comex) strengthened to $24.38 an ounce in early Thursday trade

Copper futures (Comex) weakened to $313.15 per pound in early Thursday trade

In India, Spot Gold strengthened to INR 49,754 per 10 grams in early Thursday trade

India – NCDEX Agridex

Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 1.53% trading at 1,222.60 ; with major demand seen in Ref Soy Oil and Soy Bean futures on Wednesday

Currency Markets

The dollar index, DXY, strengthened to 93.1 on Wednesday, the highest on a closing basis in a week

INR weakened -0.27% with USD—INR at 74.3763

JPY weakened -0.31% with USD—JPY at 105.6300

CNY weakened -0.22% with USD—CNY at 6.6310

EUR weakened -0.53% with EUR—USD at 1.1752

GBP weakened -0.57% with GBP—USD at 1.3197

SEK weakened -0.45% with USD—SEK at 8.6564

*3-Month LIBOR Rate*	*As on 11 Nov 2020*
US DOLLAR	0.21 per cent
Euro	– 0.54 per cent
British Pound	0.04 per cent
Swiss Franc	– 0.78 per cent
Japanese Yen	– 0.10 per cent

Bond Markets

Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields

United States : Up 2 basis points at 0.98%
Canada : Unchanged at 0.77%

Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields

Germany : Down 2 basis points at -0.51%
United Kingdom : Up 1 basis point at 0.41%
France : Down 3 basis points at -0.27%
Italy : Down 3 basis points at 0.73%
Spain : Down 2 basis points at 0.16%
Netherlands : Down 2 basis points at -0.42%

Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields

India : Down 1 basis point at 5.90%
Japan : Down 1 basis point at 0.03%
Australia : Up 7 basis points at 0.99%
Hong Kong : Up 7 basis points at 0.44%
Singapore : Up 8 basis points at 0.93%
South Korea : Up 4 basis point at 1.68%

Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI — Nov 11 2020 (source NSE)

FII Net Buy Rs 6,207.19 Crore in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs (3,463.86) Crore in Cash Market

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