Finance - Stock Market Forecast

Index Trend & Conditions – 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.

• For Wednesday, Nov 25, Support is seen at 12,964 and 13,013

• Major Resistance area for Bank Nifty at 29,400 29,650 and 30,000

• The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan is up 0.49% in early Tuesday trade, while the MSCI Emerging Market index was up 0.29% on Tuesday

• Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a gap-up opening with a positive outlook for Nifty 50 in India with a 59 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 13,146 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 a.m. I.S.T.

• Contracts tied to S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures trading in green in early Wednesday morning, a strong Asia-Pacific early morning trade, MSCI APAC ex-Japan up 0.49% on the day and a weakening U.S. dollar with climbing 10-Year Treasuries indicate a positive outlook for Nifty 50 India

• The current mood in the market is bracing and non-committal

India Markets

NIFTY 50	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE
Tuesday	13,002	13,079	12,978	13,055

Nifty 50 opened gap-up and closed in the green on Tuesday trade adding 128 points or 1.00% to life high of 13,055

Infra, Energy and IT stocks were the laggards on the day, while Private Bank, Realty and Auto stocks were at the vanguard on the day’s rally

Nifty P/E for Nov 24, 2020 advanced to 35.90 as recorded by NSE India

On the downside, support area is at 12,964 and 13,013 for Wednesday

The S&P BSE Sensex added 500 points or 1.10% to 44,590 on Tuesday

Bank Nifty added 713 points or 2.46% on Tuesday to close at 29,737. Level of 28,500 is acting as a good support level now, below which the next support is at 27,388. Critical Resistance at 29,400 29,650 and 30,000

India VIX moved up 1.25% from 20.79 to 21.05 levels

Broader market indices under-performed their headline peers — Midcap index added 0.73% ; Smallcap index added 0.89% ; Nifty 500 added 0.92% ; Nifty Alpha 50 added 0.77% and Nifty Alpha Low Volatility 30 added 0.40%

Overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.11% as per RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.90 — 3.40% for Nov 23

The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond was up at 5.874% while the rupee strengthened to 73.97 against the U.S. dollar

Cars24 Services Pvt., an online marketplace for used cars based in India saw a jump in company’s valuation to more than $1 billion after a new round of funding. DST Global, the investment firm led by Russia-born billionaire Yuri Milner, invested $200 million in the deal. DST Global is based in Hong Kong and has backed a varied list of companies over the years, including Facebook Inc. and WhatsApp in the U.S. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. in China

India banned another 43 Chinese apps including some of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s key shopping services such as Aliexpress and Taobao Live, expanding its mobile blacklist to more than 200 applications. The government said the bans are in the interest of national security

America Markets

U.S. stocks rallied toward records on Tuesday trade as the formal start of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition joined positive vaccine news and rising stimulus odds to spur more risk taking

The Dow Jones climbed 455 points or 1.5% to a new record of 30,046 and the S&P 500 jumped 58 points or 1.6% to 3,635 ; while the Nasdaq added 156 points or 1.3% to 12,037

Today in the derivatives market, contracts tied to the Dow Jones is up 0.45%, S&P 500 is up 0.50% while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.71%

Tesla Inc.‘s addition to the S&P 500 Index has sparked a buying frenzy among investors, pushing the company’s market valuation over the $500 billion mark for the first time on Tuesday

U.S. consumer confidence fell in November to a 3-month low as the coronavirus resurgence prompted a slide in Americans’ expectations for the economy and job market. The Conference Board’s index decreased to 96.1 from an upwardly revised 101.4 reading in October

“Looking three to six months out, we do think the recovery will maintain its momentum,” Anna Han, equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, said on Bloomberg TV. “When you see that reflation trade coming back, it’s telling you that investors are gaining confidence in growth prospects looking forward.”

“Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “In addition, the resurgence of Covid-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.”

“Markets love certainty and the move by Trump overnight partially removes ambiguity over the presidential succession,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst with Oanda Asia Pacific Pte, wrote in a note. “A Biden administration is expected to be much less isolationist, with hopes that the U.S. will reengage on global trade and improve relations with China.”

Asia-Pacific Markets

Shares rose across Asia Pacific, with energy and raw-materials stocks leading gains in early Wednesday trade

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1.69% to 26,607, while Topix 500 added 1.28% to 1,385

South Korea’s Kospi added 0.61% to 2,633

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng added 1.32% to 26,938

In China, CSI 300 dropped -0.79% to 4,965. Hang Seng China Enterprises added 0.75% to 10,692. Shanghai Composite added 0.24% to 3,410

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.71% to 6,691

Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.45% to 2,904

Overall, MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, is up 0.26%

Asian equity markets are on pace for their biggest influx of foreign money since 2013

Xiaomi Corp. posted its fastest pace of revenue growth in more than two years after the Chinese smartphone giant grabbed market share from Huawei Technologies Co. when American sanctions deepened. A stronger-than-anticipated 34.5% rise in sales to 72.2 billion yuan ($11 billion) in the September quarter

Premier Li Keqiang said that China’s economic strategy of allowing consumption to play a leading role in driving growth, and gradually opening up to foreign investors. He said China doesn’t deliberately target a trade surplus, an issue that’s been a source a tension with the U.S.. China recently laid out its five and 15-year plans for the economy, outlining an ambition to double the size of gross domestic product by 2035, with a focus on self-reliance in technology and boosting domestic consumption

EU Markets

European stocks traded firmly higher on Tuesday trade

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.62% to 391

Stoxx 50 added 1.31% to close at 3,508

Germany’s DAX30 added 1.20% to 13,282

London’s FTSE 100 added 1.47% to close to 6,424

France’s CAC40 added 1.23% to 5,559

Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 dropped -1.69% to 1,372

Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 2.90% at 1,277

Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 added 0.85% at 1,938

Italy’s FTSE MIB added 1.90% at 22,113

In Germany, the operator of the DAX index announced the biggest overhaul since the index’s inception in 1988. The number of members will increase to 40 from 30 and new quality criteria will be imposed on both existing and prospective members

After the coronavirus pandemic has passed, Europe could find the most damaging economic legacy is not the vast piles of government debt but the hundreds of billion euros in liabilities that have landed on companies, and small firms are already sounding the alarm

Euro-area companies added more than 400 billion euros ($475 billion) in debt over the first half of this year, compared with 289 billion euros in the whole of 2019, according to European Union data

In Germany, which has so far come through the crisis better than most of its peers, the Bundesbank predicts that insolvencies will rise by more than 35% by the first quarter of next year. A survey by SME United, another lobby organization, showed around half of small and medium-sized businesses in France and Italy are worried about failing

In the medium term though, proposed solutions require government support. That includes tools to improve corporate solvency so viable firms aren’t buried under their debt.

“With every week that goes by, the chances of survival for closed businesses are thinning,” said Germain Simoneau, head of the finance committee of French small firm federation CPME. “We’ve never seen a crisis on this scale with systemic risks looming in the background.”

Oil & Natural Gas Markets

With coronavirus vaccines appearing more likely in recent weeks, crude demand in Asia is soaring. A rebound in Chinese local flights is also aiding demand for jet fuel, the hardest-hit oil product

WTI Crude is trading higher at $45.38 per barrel in early Wednesday trade

Brent Crude is trading higher at $48.38 per barrel in early Wednesday trade

Natural Gas futures is trading higher at $2.892/MMBtu in early Wednesday trade

On MCX-India, Crude oil futures added 4.32% to 3,333 on Tuesday’s session

On MCX-India, Natural gas futures added 1.99% to 205/MMBtu on Tuesday’s session

Gold & Silver Markets (+ Copper Futures)

Gold dropped to the lowest since July

Pfizer Inc.‘s positive announcement about the 95% efficacy rate of its Covid-19 vaccine together with reduction in political uncertainty in the U.S. after General Services Administration’s acknowledgment of Biden as the apparent winner of the presidential election, sparked a rotation into risk assets driving down gold

U.S. Gold futures (Comex) weakened to $1,813.90 an ounce in early Wednesday trade

U.S. Spot Gold weakened to $1,809.37 an ounce in early Wednesday trade

Silver futures (Comex) weakened to $23.47 an ounce in early Wednesday trade

Copper futures (Comex) strengthened to $3.3370 per pound in early Wednesday trade — reaching the highest since 2014

In India, Spot Gold weakened to INR 47,790 per 10 grams in early Wednesday trade

India — NCDEX Agridex

Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was down -1.64% trading at 1,191.20 ; with major decline in Ref Soya Oil and Coriander futures on Tuesday trade

Currency Markets

The U.S. dollar index, DXY retreated to 92.106 in early Wednesday trade amid an increase in risk appetite after U.S. General Services Administration acknowledged Joe Biden as the apparent winner of the presidential election

INR strengthened 0.13% with USD — INR at 74.0013

JPY weakened -0.15% with USD — JPY at 104.6800

CNY weakened -0.08% with USD — CNY at 6.5915

EUR strengthened 0.24% with EUR — USD at 1.1870

GBP strengthened 0.17% with GBP — USD at 1.3344

SEK strengthened 0.61% with USD — SEK at 8.5760

*3-Month LIBOR Rate*	*As on 24 Nov 2020*
US DOLLAR	0.20 per cent
Euro	– 0.54 per cent
British Pound	0.05 per cent
Swiss Franc	– 0.77 per cent
Japanese Yen	– 0.10 per cent