Index Trend & Conditions | 08:30 IST
• Major Resistance created at 11,970—12,100 area for Nifty50
• For Monday, Nov 02, Support at 11,604 and 11,535 with Resistance at 11,760 and 11,894 for Nifty50
• Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive outlook for Nifty50 in India with a 25 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,660 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:30 IST
• Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading green on the day, a positive outlook of Asia-Pacific early morning trade, and US dollar strengthening higher with Treasuries indicate a positive start with a negative and range-bound (between 11,760 and 11,535) bias for Nifty 50 India
• The current mood in the market is bracing and non-committal
India Markets
| NIFTY 50 | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | 11,678 | 11,748 | 11,535 | 11,642 |
Nifty50 dropped 28 points or -0.24% on Friday to close at 11,642; after opening higher on the day’s session at 11,678
The index formed an indecisive Spinning Top candle on the daily chart and a bearish candle on the weekly chart
The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the index lay at 11,530 and 11,459 levels, respectively
Nifty50 has taken support at 11,535 – 11,600 area, and can continue its oscillation being range-bound to 11,535 – 12,000 in this week
Any close below 11,535 on this week will put a significant selling pressure on Nifty 50 down to 11,300 – 11,244 levels
Both Telecom and Auto stocks were the worst performers on the Friday’s session, while Realty and Energy stocks were at the vanguard of the rally
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 11,760 and 11,894 for Monday
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,604 and 11,535 for Monday
The BSE Sensex index tumbled 135 points or -0.34% to 39,7614 on Friday
Bank Nifty dropped 191 points or -0.79% during the day, to close at 23,900 continuing its contraction while staying above its 200-day EMA at 23,600
Bank Nifty’s strong resistance level at 24,581 still remains valid
India VIX moved up 3.04 per cent from 24.02 to 24.75 level
Broader market indices outperformed their headline peers, closing higher on the Friday. The Midcap index added 92 points or 0.54% while the smallcap index added 0.03%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.20% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.80 – 3.50% as on Oct 28
America Markets
Wall Street sank for the 3rd-session in five and booked its worst week since March despite a late-session comeback, as rising coronavirus waves in several parts of the world, lacklustre earnings and dim stimulus prospects weighed heavily on sentiment
The Dow Jones lost 158 points or -0.6% to 26,502
The S&P retreated 40 points or -1.2% to 3,270
The Nasdaq fell 274 points or -2.5% to 10,912
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 90 points or -0.57% to 15,580
Today in derivatives market, Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures edged up after lurching lower earlier and are up 0.2% at 08:00 IST
“Whichever way you look at it, this coming week will be huge for U.S. and global markets,” said Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank Pjsc. “We see the potential for a sharp rise in volatility around these events – and all in the context of a still deteriorating Covid-19 situation across much of the US, Europe and elsewhere.”
Asia-Pacific Markets
Stocks gained in Asia in early Monday trade, ahead of a crucial week spanning the US election and a Federal Reserve policy meeting, events that could set the tone for the rest of the year
The Nikkei 225 added 320 points or -1.40% to 23,298
Topix 500 added 29 points or 2.37% to 1,248
South Korea’s Kospi added 21 points or 0.91% to 2,287
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index added 130 points or 0.54% to 24,237
China’s CSI 300 Index added 32 points or 0.68% at 4,727
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 80 points or 0.86% to 9,848
Shanghai Composite Index lost 9 points or -0.28% at 3,216
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 27 points or 0.45% to 5,954
Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 21 points or 0.87% to 2,445
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is down -1.60%
In Japan, housing starts tumbled -9.9% YoY in September following a -9.1% drop a month earlier, pointing to the 15th consecutive month of decline. The jobless rate was at 3% in September, the highest since May 2017
The IHS Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2 in October 2020, up from 49.8 month-on-month, pointing to the 1st-time expansion in the manufacturing sector since last December, amid easing of lockdown restrictions
Japan Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.7 in October 2020 from a flash reading of 48.0 and compared to a final 47.7 month-on-month, marked the lowest deterioration in the health of the manufacturing sector since November last year
IHS Markit Malaysia Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in October 2020 from 49.0 in September. This was the third straight month of contraction and the steepest in the sequence
IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 in October 2020 from 47.2 month-on-month, as the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in Jakarta were loosened in mid-October, with both output and new orders falling at softer rates
Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly was at 53.6 in October 2020, better than market consensus and September’s figure of 53.0, making this the sixth straight month of rise in factory activity and the strongest since January 2011
EU Markets
European equities suffered their worst week since the March crash. Concerns about Europe’s recovery sparked a wave of selling after Germany and France announced new lockdowns to curb the spread of the pandemic
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 0.38% at 342 on Friday
Stoxx 50 fell -0.06% to close at 2,958 on Friday
Germany’s DAX30 dropped 42 points or -0.36% to 11,556 on Friday
London’s FTSE 100 dropped 5 points or -0.08% to close to 5,577 on Friday
France’s CAC40 added 25 point, or 0.54% at 4,594
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index dropped 17 points or -1.26% at 1,323
Luxembourg’s LuxX Index dropped -0.21% at 1,034
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index added 0.09% at 1,717
Italy’s FTSE MIB Index added 71 points or 0.40% at 17,943
On the economic data front, data showed sharper-than-expected declines in France’s household consumption and German retail sales during September, as well as weak inflation across Europe’s largest economies
ECB signaled more monetary stimulus might be delivered as soon as December after President Christine Lagarde warned that risks to the bloc’s economic outlook were “clearly” tilted to the downside, due to rising COVID-19 cases
In Italy, the economy expanded by a record 16.1% in the three months to September, above forecasts of 11.2%
Italy’s unemployment rate dropped marginally to 9.6% in September from 9.7% in August, well below market consensus of 10.1%
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
WTI crude futures slumped -11% in the month to $35.79 a barrel on Friday, the second consecutive month of losses to the lowest level in about 5-months
Brent crude futures fell for a third day by -0.5% to settle at $37.46 a barrel on Friday
Natural gas futures were up 2.74% to trade at $3.380/MMBtu on Friday, highest level since January 2019
WTI Crude is trading lower at $34.60 per barrel in early Monday trade
Brent Crude is trading lower at $36.81 per barrel in early Monday trade
Natural Gas futures higher at $3.380 per mmbtu in early Monday trade
On MCX-India, Crude oil futures dropped -2.08% to 2,642 on Friday’s session
On MCX-India, Natural gas futures added 0.45% to 248 on Friday’s session
Crude oil demand outlook is still bleak with the European Union’s two biggest economies to impose month-long movement restrictions to curb the spread of the virus
Gas market continues to be supported by the fundamentals of supply and demand on the back of lower production and steadily rising export demand
“The market seems to be losing confidence in longer-term demand and is intent on creating an increased disincentive for investment in future capacity,” Standard Chartered analysts Paul Horsnell and Emily Ashford wrote in a report.
Gold & Silver Markets (+ copper futures)
Gold rose 0.6% to settle at $1,880 per ounce on Friday, with a strengthening dollar continued to undercut appetite for bullion last week
Silver rose 1.68% to $23.64 an ounce on Friday, pausing a 2-day slide and up around 1.5% on the month
Copper futures dropped -0.29% to $3.04 per pound on Friday
US Gold futures (Comex) strengthened to $1,885.00 an ounce in early Friday trade
US Spot Gold strengthened to $1,884.85an ounce in early Monday trade
Silver futures (Comex) strengthened to $24.02 an ounce in early Monday trade
Copper futures (Comex) strengthened to $304.85 per pound in early Monday trade
In India, Spot Gold strengthened to INR 50,127 per 10 grams in early Monday trade
“We think there will be ongoing downward pressure on gold prices in the near term as the dollar finds support from global growth concerns,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “There is a high risk of a double-dip recession in the euro zone because governments are reinstating broad-based lockdown measures.”
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 0.25% trading at 1,216.70 ; with major demand seen in Guar Gum, Castor Seed and Chana futures on Friday
Currency Markets
The dollar index inched higher to trade above 94 on Friday, extending the rally for 3rd session and remaining at 1 month high amid rising coronavirus infections and a potentially contested election result in the US
Euro remains under pressure as investors worry about the impact of renewed lockdowns in France, Germany, and a few Spanish regions
USD strengthened on Friday, with currency index adding 0.09% against its G-10 peers, at 92.038
INR weakened -0.20% with USD-INR at 74.5400, weakest since Aug 25
JPY weakened -0.05% with USD-JPY at 104.6400
CNY strengthened 0.35% with USD-CNY at 6.6915
EUR weakened -0.23% with EUR-USD at 1.1647
GBP strengthened 0.13% with GBP-USD at 1.2947
SEK strengthened 0.36% with USD-SEK at 8.8977
| 3-Month LIBOR Rate | As on 30 Oct 2020 |
| US DOLLAR | 0.21 per cent |
| Euro | – 0.53 per cent |
| British Pound | 0.05 per cent |
| Swiss Franc | – 0.77 per cent |
| Japanese Yen | – 0.10 per cent |
Bond Markets
Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : Up 5 basis points at 0.87%
Canada : Up 3 basis points at 0.66%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : Up 1 basis point at -0.63%
United Kingdom : Up 4 basis point at 0.26%
France : Up 1 basis point at -0.34%
Italy : Up 7 basis points at 0.76%
Spain : Flat at 0.13%
Netherlands : Up 1 basis point at -0.52%
Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
India : Flat at 5.88%
Japan : Up 1 basis point at 0.03%
Australia : Up 1 basis point at 0.82%
Hong Kong : Up 12 basis points at 0.46%
Singapore : Down 2 basis points at 0.80%
South Korea : Up 3 basis points at 1.53%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Oct 30 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Sell Rs (870.88) Crore in Cash Market
DII Net Buy Rs 631.11 Crore in Cash Market
