Index Trend & Conditions | 08:00 IST
• Major Resistance created at 11,970—12,100 area for Nifty50
• For Tuesday, Nov 03, Support at 11,535 and 11,312 with Resistance at 11,680 11,760 and 11,900 for Nifty50
• Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a gap-up outlook for Nifty50 in India with a 85 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,754 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 IST
• Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading in green on early Tuesday morning, a positive outlook of Asia-Pacific early morning trade, MSCI APAC ex-Japan up 1.19% on the day and a declining US dollar with strengthening Treasuries indicate a gap-up start with a positive but range-bound (between 11,777 and 11,535) bias for Nifty 50 India
• The current mood in the market is bracing and non-committal
India Markets
| NIFTY 50 | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 11,697 | 11,725 | 11,557 | 11,669 |
Nifty50 added 26 points or 0.23% on Monday to close at 11,669; after opening higher on the day’s session at 11,697
The index failed to hold at higher levels and corrected around 80 points from intra-day high and settled the session with a marginal gain
Nifty formed a bearish candle, as it closed below its opening level and formed an Inside Bar, as it traded inside the trading range of the last session
The back-to-back formation of two identical candle patterns, that too below a key overhead resistance at 11,760 level, suggests the bulls are preparing to surpass the hurdle shortly
Nifty50 has respected the support at 11,535—11,600 area, and continues its oscillation being range-bound at 11,535—11,777 in this week
Any close below 11,535 on this week will put a significant selling pressure on Nifty 50 down to 11,300—11,244 levels, with positional shorting below 11,535 level for bigger targets
Both Energy and Infra stocks were the worst performers on Monday’s session, while Private Bank and Telecom stocks were at the vanguard of the rally
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 11,680 11,760 and 11,900 for Tuesday
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,535 and 11,312 for Tuesday
The BSE Sensex index gained 143 points or 0.36% to 39,757 on Monday
Bank Nifty added 991 points or 4.15% during the day, to close at 24,892 witnessing strong buying interest. It outperformed Nifty and extended its move towards the 25,100 mark
Bank Nifty’s resistance level at 24,581 may act as support for Tuesday’s session with crucial resistance now placed at 25,180
India VIX moved up 1.85 per cent from 24.75 to 25.21 level
Broader market indices closed marginally higher on the Monday. The Midcap index advanced 69 points or 0.40% while the smallcap index dropped -1.28%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.58% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 2.50—4.00% as on Oct 31
On stocks front, shares of Reliance Industries tanked -8.62% to Rs 1,877.30 after the oil-to-telecom conglomerate reported a 15% YoY drop in second quarter profit
ICICI Bank climbed 6.25% to Rs 417 after a host of brokerages raised price targets for the stock after the private lender reported better-than-expected earnings for September quarter
America Markets
Wall Street surged to start a week of big market volatility in the green, as investors brace for the US presidential election on Tuesday
Defensive sectors such as technology declined while energy and materials gained
The Dow Jones added 424 points or 1.6% to 26,925
The S&P 500 gained 40 points or 1.2% to 3,310
The Nasdaq climbed 46 points or 0.4% to 10,958
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index added 116 points or 0.75% to 15,696
Today in derivatives market, Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures are up 0.8% 0.6% and 0.4% respectively at 08:00 IST
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US jumped to 59.3 in October from 55.4 in September, beating market forecasts of 56.4 ; pointing to the strongest growth in factory activity since September of 2018, amid faster increases in new orders, new export orders and production and a rebound in employment and inventories
“It’s just a lot of noise,” said Nathan Thooft, Manulife Investment Management’s head of global asset allocation. “Not a ton of volume necessarily, positioning is reasonably light, so it doesn’t take a lot to swing things from one way to the other.”
Asia-Pacific Markets
Stocks gained in Asia in early Tuesday trade, ahead of a crucial week spanning the US election and a Federal Reserve policy meeting, events that could set the tone for the rest of the year
Australian stocks led gains among the region’s major markets, with Credit Corp Group Ltd rising more than 7%
The Nikkei 225 added 320 points or 1.39% to 23,295
Topix 500 added 23 points or 1.89% to 1,243
South Korea’s Kospi added 42 points or 1.83% to 2,342
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index added 432 points or 1.77% to 24,892
China’s CSI 300 Index added 33 points or 0.71% at 4,754
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 144 points or 1.44% to 10,080
Shanghai Composite Index added 28 points or 0.88% at 3,253
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 113 points or 1.91% to 6,065
Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 24 points or 1.00% to 2,467
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is up 1.19%
Australia’s job advertisements in newspapers and on the internet posted its the sixth straight month of gain while Australian PMI data declined slightly
Australia’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates to a fresh record low, reduce its three-year yield target and unleash further bond buying tomorrow in a bid to boost Australia’s post-lockdown recovery
The IHS Markit South Korea Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2 in October 2020, up from 49.8 month-on-month, pointing to the 1st-time expansion in the manufacturing sector since last December, amid easing of lockdown restrictions
Japan Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 48.7 in October 2020 from a flash reading of 48.0 and compared to a final 47.7 month-on-month, marked the lowest deterioration in the health of the manufacturing sector since November last year
Japan’s market sentiment was lifted by reports that Toyota Motor Corp and KDDI Corp would invest JPY 52.2 billion in the mobile carrier to deepen their partnership
IHS Markit Malaysia Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in October 2020 from 49.0 in September. This was the third straight month of contraction and the steepest in the sequence
IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 in October 2020 from 47.2 month-on-month, as the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in Jakarta were loosened in mid-October, with both output and new orders falling at softer rates
Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly was at 53.6 in October 2020, better than market consensus and September’s figure of 53.0, making this the sixth straight month of rise in factory activity and the strongest since January 2011
EU Markets
European stock markets rebounded from their worst week since the March crash on Monday, as better-than-expected manufacturing PMI surveys from Eurozone’s largest economies
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 1.29% at 346 on Monday
Stoxx 50 added 61 points or 2.07% to close at 3,019 on Monday
Germany’s DAX30 added 232 points or 2.01% to 11,788 on Monday
London’s FTSE 100 added 77 points or 1.39% to close to 5,655 on Monday
France’s CAC40 added 97 point, or 2.11% at 4,691
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index added 12 points or 0.90% at 1,335
Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 1.77% at 1,052
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index added 1.79% at 1,748
Italy’s FTSE MIB Index added 456 points or 2.55% at 18,400
Germany entered a four-week lockdown today and British PM Boris Johnson announced over the weekend that England will also enter a one-month lockdown from November 5th, while other countries in the continent imposed stricter restrictions
On the corporate front, Dutch biotechnology company Kiadis soared 250% after Sanofi offered to buy the company for €308 million to boost its range of immunotherapy products
British online supermarket and technology group Ocado jumped 8% after it upgraded earnings outlook for its retail joint venture
Bank of England is likely to announce a £100 billion expansion of its bond buying programme at its policy meeting on Thursday
In Italy, the economy expanded by a record 16.1% in the three months to September, above forecasts of 11.2%
Italy’s unemployment rate dropped marginally to 9.6% in September from 9.7% in August, well below market consensus of 10.1%
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
WTI crude cut early losses rising more than 1% to around $36.2 a barrel on Monday, supported by upbeat manufacturing PMI data from China, the US, Eurozone, Italy, Spain and Germany
Brent crude futures pared early losses rising nearly 0.6% to around $38.2 a barrel on Monday
Natural gas fell -4% to $3.22/MMBtu on Monday, as weather forecasts point to mild weather in the coming days
WTI Crude is trading lower at $36.74 per barrel in early Tuesday trade
Brent Crude is trading lower at $38.81 per barrel in early Tuesday trade
Natural Gas futures higher at $3.232 per mmbtu in early Tuesday trade
On MCX-India, Crude oil futures added 3.37% to 2,731 on Monday’s session
On MCX-India, Natural gas futures dropped -2.34% to 242 on Monday’s session
Crude oil demand outlook is still bleak with the European Union’s two biggest economies to impose month-long movement restrictions to curb the spread of the virus
Bearish sentiment was also fueled by the resumption of Libya’s oil exports
Against a backdrop of sagging demand and signs of growing supply, oil market may be about to get some relief from China—as they raised the quota for use of overseas oil by more than 20% versus 2020 equivalent to 823,000 barrels a day, which is slightly less than the amount that OPEC member Algeria pumps
“The market seems to be losing confidence in longer-term demand and is intent on creating an increased disincentive for investment in future capacity,” Standard Chartered analysts Paul Horsnell and Emily Ashford wrote in a report.
Gold & Silver Markets (+ copper futures)
Gold was slightly higher to trade above $1,900 an ounce on Monday
Silver traded more than 1% higher around $23.9 an ounce on Monday
Copper futures added 0.87% to $3.07 per pound on Monday
US Gold futures (Comex) strengthened to $1,897.10 an ounce in early Tuesday trade
US Spot Gold strengthened to $1,897.52 an ounce in early Tuesday trade
Silver futures (Comex) strengthened to $24.18 an ounce in early Tuesday trade
Copper futures (Comex) strengthened to $309.15 per pound in early Tuesday trade
In India, Spot Gold strengthened to INR 50,382 per 10 grams in early Tuesday trade
“We think there will be ongoing downward pressure on gold prices in the near term as the dollar finds support from global growth concerns,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “There is a high risk of a double-dip recession in the euro zone because governments are reinstating broad-based lockdown measures.”
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was down -0.79% trading at 1,195 ; with major demand seen in Chana, Guar Gum and Mustard Seed futures on Monday
Currency Markets
The dollar index traded nearly flat around 94.17 on Monday, extending the rally for 4th session amid rising coronavirus infections and a potentially contested election result in the US
Euro remains under pressure as investors worry about the impact of renewed lockdowns in France, Germany, and a few Spanish regions
USD strengthened on Monday, with currency index adding 0.15% against its G-10 peers, at 94.177
INR weakened -0.43% with USD-INR at 74.4313
JPY weakened -0.18% with USD-JPY at 104.8500
CNY strengthened 0.01% with USD-CNY at 6.6910
EUR weakened -0.17% with EUR-USD at 1.1627
GBP weakened -0.42% with GBP-USD at 1.2893
SEK weakened -0.39% with USD-SEK at 8.9324
| 3-Month LIBOR Rate | As on 02 Nov 2020 |
| US DOLLAR | 0.21 per cent |
| Euro | – 0.53 per cent |
| British Pound | 0.05 per cent |
| Swiss Franc | – 0.77 per cent |
| Japanese Yen | – 0.10 per cent |
Bond Markets
Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : Down 4 basis points at 0.84%
Canada : Down 3 basis points at 0.63%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : Down 1 basis point at -0.64%
United Kingdom : Down 4 basis point at 0.22%
France : Down 1 basis point at -0.36%
Italy : Down 1 basis point at 0.74%
Spain : Down 1 basis point at 0.12%
Netherlands : Down 1 basis point at -0.53%
Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
India : Up 1 basis point at 5.89%
Japan : Flat at 0.04%
Australia : Flat at 0.82%
Hong Kong : Down 10 basis points at 0.37%
Singapore : Down 1 basis point at 0.79%
South Korea : Up 9 basis points at 1.62%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Nov 02 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Buy Rs 740.61 Crore in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs (533.97) Crore in Cash Market
