Index Trend & Conditions | 08:15 IST
• Major Resistance created at 12,100—12,180 area for Nifty50
• For Friday, Nov 06, Support at 12,020 and 11,760 with Resistance at 12,180 and 12,340 for Nifty50
• Trends on SGX Nifty pointed to a muted start for Nifty50 in India with a 19 points loss. The Nifty futures were trading at 12,156 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:15 IST
• Contracts tied to S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading negative in early Friday morning, a positive outlook of Asia-Pacific early morning trade, MSCI APAC ex-Japan up 2.45% on the day and a weakening US dollar with 10-Year Treasuries surging higher indicate a positive start with a range-bound (between 12,180 and 11,760) bias for Nifty 50 India
• The current mood in the market is bracing and non-committal
India Markets
| NIFTY 50 | OPEN | HIGH | LOW | CLOSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 12,062 | 12,131 | 12,027 | 12,120 |
Nifty50 witnessed a gap-up opening on Thursday, amid a highly volatile global market
Nifty50 added 212 points or 1.80% on Thursday to close at 12,120
Nifty50 formed a ‘Rising Window’, and may test previous high of 12,430
Realty stocks was the worst performer on Thursday’s session, while Metal and Commodity stocks were at the vanguard of the rally
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 12,180 and 12,340 for Friday
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,760 and 12,020 for Friday
The BSE Sensex index gained 724 points or 1.78% to 41,340 on Thursday
Bank Nifty opened with a gap up and continued its northward journey towards the 26,375 mark
The index formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow, which indicated that declines are being bought into and the momentum may continue
India VIX fell 9.63 per cent from 23.20 to 20.96 levels
Broader market indices closed higher on the Thursday. The Midcap index advanced 1.78% while the smallcap index added 1.64%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.18% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.80—3.50% as on Nov 03
India allowed Facebook Inc. to start operating its WhatsApp payments service to start operating in the world’s biggest open technology market
PM Modi invited global funds and businesses to invest in India, pitching the nation as a safe and stable destination
While foreign fund inflows into Indian stocks have been positive this year, and foreign direct investment saw a 13% increase in the last five months, the outlook for the economy isn’t very bright. The International Monetary Fund sees India’s gross domestic product declining 10.3% in the year to March, the biggest contraction of major emerging markets
“A strong and vibrant India can contribute to stabilization of the world economic order,” Modi said, pledging to “do whatever it takes to make India the engine of global growth resurgence. There is an exciting period of progress ahead. I invite you to be a part of it.”
Analysts see multi-billion dollar opportunities for Indian IT firms and demand for new categories of FMCG products in the post-Covid market. And certain sectors such as real estate may take time to come back
America Markets
Wall Street extended gains for the 4th session on Thursday as investors await the final outcome of US presidential election as ballots continued to be counted in battleground states Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia
If Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins the White House, but Republicans retain the Senate, chances for significant reforms or corporate tax increases dwindle. At the same time, that would push the Fed to act further to support economic recovery
“The divided government is the best possible scenario for markets. If it gets that, it’s happy.”
“Up until about last week, the consensus belief was a full blue sweep – now that’s changing you’re seeing a repricing taking place in the market,” Anna Han, equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC. “We’re seeing a boost today because a more status quo Senate may ease the burden of regulations on the tech sector.”
The Dow Jones jumped 543 points or 2.0% to 28,390
The S&P 500 surged 67 points or 2.0% to 3510
The Nasdaq climbed 300 points or 2.6% to 11,891
Today in derivatives market, Contracts tied to the S&P 500 dropped -0.45% while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped -0.50%
US reported 102,831 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday, the highest since the pandemic began
The Federal Reserve is seen holding the target range for the federal funds rate steady at 0—0.25 percent at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday while renewing its pledge to keep it low
Policymakers are seen discussing their future bond buying plans and stress the need of further fiscal stimulus although the central bank will likely take a wait-and-see approach as the final outcome of the US presidential election is not known yet
Unit labor costs in the US nonfarm business sector plunged 8.9 percent in the third quarter of 2020, following a 9 percent rise in the previous period and compared with market forecast of a 11.5 percent slump
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined to 751 thousand in the week ended October 31st
“Early prospects for a quick resolution to the U.S. election have given way to the reality of an extended process, not only with regards to the White House but also the Senate,” said Ian Lyngen, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “Volatile price action can only be expected to persist for the time being, at least until the path forward becomes clearer.”
A Democratic sweep would lead to a “more strenuous anti-trust review,” which would weigh on large-cap technology stocks and pharmaceutical firms
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian stocks rose broadly on Friday, tracking overnight gains in the US and European markets as investors bet a divided US government would have a positive impact on business activity
The Nikkei 225 added 1.03% to 24,352 in early Friday trade
Topix 500 added 0.74% to 1,285 in early Friday trade
South Korea’s Kospi added 0.03% to 2,414 in early Friday trade
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped -0.03% to 25,689 in early Friday trade
China’s CSI 300 Index added 1.23% at 4,872 in early Friday trade
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.13% to 10,491 in early Friday trade
Shanghai Composite Index dropped -0.20% at 3,313 in early Friday trade
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.77% to 6,186 in early Friday trade
Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped -0.96% to 2,563 in early Friday trade
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is up 2.45%
Australia’s trade surplus jumped to AUD 5.63 billion in September, posting the biggest trade surplus since June amid improving global demand. Exports surged 4%, while imports plunged 6%
Japan is creating an office to make it easier for foreign asset managers to enter the country, part of its bid to challenge Hong Kong as Asia’s main financial hub
“Strengthening Japan’s capabilities as an international financial center is our urgent priority,” Finance Minister Taro Aso said at a news conference. “We are making efforts to bring the center of Asia’s financial market from Hong Kong in light of the turmoil in the city.”
EU Markets
European equities held onto early gains to close at a two-week high on Thursday, heading for their best weekly performance since December 2011
The rally was supported by strong earnings reports from Societe Generale, UniCredit, ArcelorMittal, ProSiebenSat.1 Media, and more monetary and fiscal stimulus for Britain’s economy
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 0.99% at 365 on Thursday
Stoxx 50 added 1.72% to close at 3,215 on Thursday
Germany’s DAX30 added 1.98% to 12,568 on Thursday
London’s FTSE 100 added 0.39% to close to 5,906 on Thursday
France’s CAC40 added 1.24% to 4,984 on Thursday
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index added 47 points or 2.34% at 1,427
Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 3.54% at 1,121 on Thursday
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index added 1.49% at 1,822 on Thursday
Italy’s FTSE MIB Index added 1.93% at 21,460 on Thursday
German factory orders slow on falling EA demand
The Bank of England increased its already huge bond-buying stimulus by a bigger-than-expected 150 billion pounds ($195 billion)
The BoE cut its forecasts for Britain’s economy which it now expects to only exceed its size before the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2022. Previously, the BoE had expected the recovery be complete by the end of next year
The BoE said it expected Britain’s economy would shrink by 11% in 2020, more severe than the 9.5% contraction it forecast in August
The central bank kept its benchmark Bank Rate at 0.1%, while it looks into the feasibility of taking borrowing costs below zero for the first time
The BoE, also wary of the risk of a Brexit shock in less than two months’ time, raised the size of its asset purchase programme to 895 billion pounds ($1.16 trillion), 50 billion pounds more than expected
The Euro-area economy ground to a halt in October and will probably shrink in the coming weeks after governments reinstated lockdowns to contain the pandemic
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
WTI crude futures fell over -1% to trade around $38.8 a barrel, after briefly turning positive amid persistent concerns about fuel demand recovery
EIA data showed US crude stocks fell by 7.998 million barrels in the latest week, the biggest decline in 2 months
Brent crude futures were down nearly -1% to trade around $40.9 a barrel on Thursday
Natural gas fell -0.65% to $3.058/MMBtu on Thursday
WTI Crude is trading lower at $38.13 per barrel in early Thursday trade
Brent Crude is trading lower at $40.28 per barrel in early Thursday trade
Natural Gas futures lower at $2.933 per mmbtu in early Friday trade
On MCX-India, Crude oil futures dropped -0.90% to 2,871 on Thursday’s session
On MCX-India, Natural gas futures dropped -2.46% to 221 on Thursday’s session
A Trump win would be “bullish for oil, as OPEC+ can keep cutting without fear that Iranian oil supply will come back into the market any time soon,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB
Gold & Silver Markets (+ copper futures)
Spot gold rose more than 2% to touch $1,947 per ounce on Thursday, as the dollar rally faded
Silver jumped more than 4.5% to around $25 an ounce on Thursday
Copper rose to above $3.1 per pound in the first week of November, recovering from a 2.9% drop in the last trading week of October, supported by growing demand from top consumer China and a decline in production in Chile
US Gold futures (Comex) strengthened to $1,944.50 an ounce in early Friday trade
US Spot Gold strengthened to $1,942.94 an ounce in early Friday trade
Silver futures (Comex) strengthened to $25.42 an ounce in early Friday trade
Copper futures (Comex) stayed flat at $310.75 per pound in early Friday trade
In India, Spot Gold strengthened to INR 51,366 per 10 grams in early Friday trade
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 0.28% trading at 1,215.60 ; with major demand seen in Soy Bean and Ref Soya Oil futures on Thursday
Currency Markets
The dollar index extended losses for the third session to around 92.7 on Thursday
The dollar has been weakening since May amid rising levels of debt coupled with expectations for an extended period of low interest rates
INR strengthened 0.48% with USD-INR at 74.3887
JPY strengthened 0.75% with USD-JPY at 103.7400
CNY strengthened 0.73% with USD-CNY at 6.6065
China’s yuan is emerging as one of the most sensitive assets to the outcome of the US presidential elections. The offshore yuan climbed as much as 0.9% in late trading Wednesday to 6.6202 per dollar, its strongest level since July 2018, after earlier falling as much as 1.4% (cited Bloomberg)
EUR strengthened 0.61% with EUR-USD at 1.1797
GBP weakened 0.80% with GBP-USD at 1.3092
SEK strengthened 0.71% with USD-SEK at 8.7229
| 3-Month LIBOR Rate | As on 05 Nov 2020 |
| US DOLLAR | 0.22 per cent |
| Euro | – 0.54 per cent |
| British Pound | 0.04 per cent |
| Swiss Franc | – 0.77 per cent |
| Japanese Yen | – 0.10 per cent |
Bond Markets
Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : Up 2 basis points at 0.78%
Canada : Flat at 0.62%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : Flat at -0.64%
United Kingdom : Up 3 basis point at 0.23%
France : Flat at -0.37%
Italy : Down 2 basis points at 0.67%
Spain : Flat at 0.09%
Netherlands : Flat at -0.54%
Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
India : Down 3 basis point at 5.86%
Japan : Down 1 basis point at 0.01%
Australia : Down 5 basis points at 0.74%
Hong Kong : Down 12 basis points at 0.31%
Singapore : Down 3 basis points at 0.77%
South Korea : Down 4 basis points at 1.54%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Nov 05 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Buy Rs 5,368.31 Crore in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs (2,208.18) Crore in Cash Market
