Index Trend & Conditions
Major Resistance created at 11,960 and 12,100 for Nifty50
For Tuesday, Oct 20, Support at 11,790 with Resistance at 11,960 for Nifty50
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative outlook for Nifty50 in India with a 52 points dip. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,857 on the Singaporean Exchange at 09:00 IST
Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading flat, a negative Asia-Pacific early morning market and a strengthening dollar indicate a negative start with a weak bias for Indian benchmark indices
Hedge funds have pulled back from one of the biggest short positions in U.S. tech stocks in over a decade, in a near-record buying spree of Nasdaq futures last week. Net speculative positions in Nasdaq 100 mini contracts surged by the most in more than 13 years in the week through Oct. 13, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. ” A big Democrat win in next month’s elections doesn’t have to be bad for stocks, could also have triggered a reassessment of short bets that were looking pretty aggressive,” cited Cormac Mullen (source : Bloomberg)
India Markets
| Nifty50 on Monday | Open 11,879 | High 11,898 | Low 11,820 | Close 11,873 |
Nifty50 added 110 points or 0.94% on Monday at 11,873 after opening gap-up
The index kissed the 11,900 level but failed to surpass it, rather remained consolidative above 11,800 level
The support of 11,800 has been respected, which is a confirmation that the underlying tone continues to remain bullish
Doji candle with a long lower shadow was formed on the day scale, indicating corrective downswing if bears sustain
Both PSU Bank and Financial Services stocks were at the vanguard of the rally while Pharma and Auto stocks faltered the most
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 11,900 and 11,970 for Tuesday
While, on the downside, support is seen at two points 11,790 for Tuesday
The BSE Sensex index closed up 450 points or 1.12% at 40,431 on Monday
Telecom index on the BSE fell for the 15-straight day, -0.66% to 990, down more than 30% since its high on 08 June
Bank Nifty opened positive and advanced to 24,300 level before closing 3.12% up on the day at 24,266. The index formed a bullish candle outperforming Nifty
India VIX moved up 0.80% to 21.8175 level on Monday
Broader market indices closed higher on the day. The Midcap index closed with a rise of 0.77% while the smallcap index saw a modest gain of 0.57%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 2.69% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 2.50 – 3.30% as on Oct 17
Americas
Stocks finished sharply lower Monday as Wall Street has doubts a US stimulus package can be agreed upon before the Nov 3 presidential election
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 410 points or -1.44% to 28,195
Nasdaq was down 192 points or -1.65% to 11,479
The S&P 500 fell 57 points or -1.63% to 3,427
Russel 1000 Index dropped -1.56%, touching 1,916
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped 165 points or -1.00% to 16,274
Today in derivatives market, US futures edged higher as investors held out some hope of a deal on stimulus talks
China is closing in on the US as the most powerful country influencing the Asia-Pacific, a study showed. While the U.S. is still the region’s top superpower, its 10-point lead on China two years ago has been halved, according to the Sydney-based Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index for 2020
The U.S. “lost prestige” due to its poor response to the pandemic, multiple trade disputes and Trump’s moves to withdraw from multilateral deals and agencies, according to Herve Lemahieu, the study’s research chief
President Donald Trump indicated that he is closer to Democrats’ demands for a larger overall package than Congressional Republicans, calling in to a Wisconsin TV station to say he could exceed the amounts floated so far and voicing confidence that he “could quickly convince” Republicans wary of another large spending package. The weekend developments, raising optimism about progress on an aid package, boosted US stock index futures
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian stocks slipped in early Tuesday trade after a weak session on Wall Street overnight
The Nikkei 225 dropped 75 points or -0.32% to 23,596 in early Tuesday trade
Topix 500 dropped 6 points or -0.44% to 1,258 in early Tuesday trade
South Korea’s Kospi dropped 15 points or -0.66% in morning trade at 2,331
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index added 8 points or 0.03% to 24,550 in early Tuesday trade
China’s CSI 300 Index dropped 11 points or -0.23% to 4,744 in early Tuesday trade
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 18 points or 0.18% at 9,996 in early Tuesday trade
Shanghai Composite Index dropped 18 points or nearly -0.56% at 3,294 in early Tuesday trade
The Chinese economy advanced 4.9% yoy in Q3 2020, faster than a 3.2% expansion in Q2 but below forecasts of a 5.2% growth. With retail sales surging 3.3% YoY in September and Industrial production rising 6.9%, China’s economy is signalling that the expansion is finally extending to consumption
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 40 points or -0.65% to 6,189 in early trade
Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 14 points or -0.57% to 2,529
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is up 0.62%
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that his economy is at risk of a recession if things turn sour, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that Europe’s outlook has been particularly dented by new curbs imposed to contain the spread of the virus
Jacinda Ardern’s emphatic election victory is seen as an endorsement of an inclusive brand of leadership that may ripple beyond New Zealand’s borders
EU Markets
European stocks erased some of its early gains to trade mixed on Monday, as investors weigh strong corporate updates, prospects of further stimulus in the US and mounting coronavirus concerns. The number of infections in Europe continues to reach record highs and countries impose more restrictions
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index dropped -0.16% at 365 on Monday
Stoxx 50 added 0.12% to close at 3,249 on Monday
Germany’s DAX30 dropped 33 points or -0.25% at 12,877 on Monday
London’s FTSE 100 dropped 30 points or -0.48% to close at 5,5891 on Monday
France’s CAC40 added 9 points, or 0.19% at 4,945
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index dropped 4 points or -0.27% at 1,414
Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 0.06% at 1,068
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index added 2 points or 0.12% at 1,837
Italy’s FTSE MIB Index added 10 points or 0.06% at 19,400
Italy announced new measures on Sunday, including restricted opening times for restaurants and bars and limits on public gatherings
On the corporate front, shares of Philips rose after the company reported a jump in Q3 sales
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
Oil prices slipped for a fourth straight day on Tuesday on worries about a resurgence of coronavirus cases globally stifling a promising recovery in fuel demand, while growing output from Libya adds to plentiful supply in the market
WTI Crude is trading at $40.81 per barrel in early Tuesday trade
Brent Crude is trading at $42.32 per barrel in early Tuesday trade
Natural Gas futures added 2.75% in early Tuesday trade at $2.840 per mmbtu
For now OPEC+ is sticking with a deal to curb output by 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) through December, and then shaving the cuts back to 5.8 million bpd in January
Libya is rapidly ramping up production after armed conflict shut almost all of the country’s output in January. Output from its biggest field, Sharara, which reopened on Oct. 11, is now at around 150,000 bpd, or about half its capacity
Gold & Silver Markets
Gold traded slightly higher around $1,910 per ounce on Monday amid optimism that US lawmakers would reach a deal on a fresh stimulus package
Stricter lockdown measures across Europe and a disappointing jobless claims report in the US pushed up the dollar, making gold more expensive to 95% of the world’s population
US Gold futures (Comex) weakened to $1,905 an ounce in early Tuesday trade
US Spot Gold weakened to $1,903 an ounce
Silver futures (Comex) weakened to $24.60 an ounce
In India, Spot Gold weakened to INR 49,868 per 10 grams
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 0.61% trading at 1,168.00 ; with major gains in Soy Bean and Jeera futures on Monday
Currency Markets
The dollar index traded lower around 93.2 on Monday, the lowest on a closing basis in a week, as investors await more developments on a new stimulus plan
Rising coronavirus cases in Europe and lack of progress on Brexit talks continue to pressure the dollar up
USD strengthened on Monday, with currency index dropping -0.43% against its G-10 peers, at 93.281
INR weakened -0.03% with USD-INR at 73.3650
JPY weakened -0.03% with USD-JPY at 105.4300
CNY strengthened 0.19% with USD-CNY at 6.6848
EUR strengthened 0.58% with EUR-USD at 1.1786
GBP strengthened 0.61% with GBP-USD at 1.2994
SEK strengthened 0.61% with USD-SEK at 8.7945
Bond Markets
Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : Up 3 basis points at 0.77%
Canada : Up 1 basis point at 0.58%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : Flat at -0.63%
United Kingdom : Flat at 0.17%
France : Up 1 basis point at -0.34%
Netherlands : Flat at -0.52%
Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
India : Flat at 5.93%
Japan : Flat at 0.02%
Australia : Up 3 basis points at 0.75%
Hong Kong : Flat at 0.32%
Singapore : Flat at 0.86%
South Korea : Down 3 basis points at 1.45%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Oct 19, 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Buy Rs 1,656.78 Cr in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs -1,621.73 Cr in Cash Market
