Index Trend & Conditions
Major Resistance created at 12,100 for Nifty50
For Monday, Oct 26, Support at 11,800 with Resistance at 11,970 12,020 and 12,100 for Nifty50
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive outlook for Nifty50 in India with a 4 points gain. The Nifty futures were trading at 11,939 on the Singaporean Exchange at 08:00 IST
Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq futures trading red on the day, a negative outlook of Asia-Pacific early morning market, a Bullish Harami pattern on Nifty50 weekly chart pattern and dollar showing signs of technical pullback on the weekly chart on the day indicate a muted start with a positive bias for Indian benchmark indices with a critical level of 12,100 on Nifty50
India Markets
| Nifty50 on Friday | Open 11,957 | High 11,974 | Low 11,908 | Close 11,930 |
Nifty50 added 34 points or 0.28% on Friday to close at 11,930
The index did not make any major directional move and consolidated in a defined range
The weekly MACD remains bullish, as it trades above the signal line
The formation of an Inside Bar, where the high point of the week is slightly lower than previous week’s high and low of this week is higher than the previous week’s low, has led to the formation of a Bullish Harami pattern on the candles
Analysts expect a clear shift in focus over the coming days to classic defensive stocks with low beta like consumption, FMCG and pharma
Both Auto and Energy stocks were at the vanguard of the rally while Realty and Pharma stocks faltered the most
On the up side, crucial level or resistance is seen at 11,970 12,020 and 12,100 for Monday
While, on the downside, support is seen at 11,800 for Monday
The BSE Sensex index closed up more than 120 points or 0.31% at 40,685 on Friday
Bank Nifty has witnessed a strong resistance level at 24,581
India VIX fell -3.57% from 22.635 to 21.825 level
Broader market indices closed higher on the day. The Midcap index closed with a rise of 0.79% while the smallcap index closed with a gain of 0.71%
The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 3.14% according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 1.80 – 3.50% as on Oct 22
Data released by the Reserve Bank of India showed India’s foreign exchange reserves have surged to $551.505 billion and the current account showed an unusual surplus amid a steady flow of portfolio money
India’s power consumption grew in double digits YoY at 11.4% in the first half of this month. This signals buoyancy in industrial and commercial activities after months of subdued activity and indicates that India as an economy is in now a superior position compared with other developed countries
Americas
Wall Street closed little changed on Friday and the Dow snapped a three-day winning streak, as fiscal stimulus uncertainty continued amid rising cases in the US and Europe
The Dow Jones lost 28 points or 0.1% to 28336
The S&P 500 added 12 points or 0.3% to 3465
Nasdaq gained 42 points or 0.4% to 11,548
Russel 1000 Index added 0.37%, touching 1,936
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index added 25 points or 0.15% to 16,304
Elsewhere in America, central banks in Canada, Brazil and Colombia are seen holding interest rates at record low levels
Citrix Systems fell over 7% Thursday, to the lowest since March, after cloud growth lagged investor expectations
U.S. FDA approved Gilead’s antiviral therapy remdesivir, making it the first drug to obtain formal clearance for treating the coronavirus
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian stocks traded mixed on Friday traders seemed unimpressed with the final US presidential debate, reinforcing their caution heading into the November poll
The Nikkei 225 added 42.32 points or 0.18% to 23516.59 on Friday, posting a weekly gain of 0.58%
Topix 500 added 5 points or 0.40% to 1,255 on Friday
South Korea’s Kospi added 6 points or 0.24% in morning trade at 2,360
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index added 132 points or 0.54% to 24,918 on Friday
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 40 points or 0.40% at 10,125 on Friday
The Shanghai Composite Index shed 27 points or 0.8% to 3,286 on Friday
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 7 points or -0.11% to 6,167 on Friday
Australian manufacturing activity grew at a weaker rate in October and missed market consensus
Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 9 points or 0.36% to 2,537
Overall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, is up 4.57%
Market participants tracked US equities lower after IMF on Wednesday downgraded its forecast for Asia-Pacific region to a contraction of 2.2% in 2020
A preliminary IHS Markit survey showed Australian manufacturing activity declined to 54.2 in October from 55.4 in September, while the Services PMI increased to 53.8 from 50.8 over the same period
Australia’s BlueScope Steel surged 12% in its biggest intraday percentage gain in four years on a strong second-half outlook
The Bank of Japan will have its monetary policy meeting, but no changes are expected
EU Markets
European stocks closed higher on Friday as carmakers and bank shares outperformed amid upbeat corporate updates
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 0.53% at 361 on Friday
Stoxx 50 added 0.87% to close at 3,199 on Friday
Germany’s DAX30 added 103 points or 0.82% at 12,645 on Friday
London’s FTSE 100 added 75 points or 1.3% to close at 5,860 on Friday
France’s CAC40 added 58 points, or 1.20% at 4,909
Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 Index added 3 points or 0.21% at 1,378
Luxembourg’s LuxX Index added 0.65% at 1,090
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm 30 Index dropped 0.20% at 1,819
Italy’s FTSE MIB Index added 208 points or 1.09% at 19,285
Purchasing Managers Index for France pointed to an economy back in a slump while in Germany a strong performance in manufacturing helped offset a service sector that slipped back into contraction
IHS Markit’s October composite PMI for the euro area slipped to 49.4, dropping below the 50 mark that divides an expansion from a contraction for the first time since June
Germany’s Daimler AG raised its full-year profit forecast and reported stronger-than expected quarterly results while Renault said it should have positive cash flow from cars by the end of 2020
Shares of Barclays jumped as its consumer businesses swung back to profit and provisions against bad loans fell in the third quarter
Oil & Natural Gas Markets
WTI and Brent dropped nearly 2% and 1% to trade at $39.7 and $41.6 a barrel respectively on Friday
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he was prepared to extend record supply cuts as cases of COVID-19 surge in the US and Europe
WTI Crude is trading at $39.24 per barrel in early Monday trade
Brent Crude is trading at $41.16 per barrel in early Monday trade
Natural Gas futures dropped -1.08% in early Monday trade at $2.942 per mmbtu
On MCX-India, Crude oil futures dropped to 2,939 in early Monday trade
On MCX-India, Natural gas futures stayed flat at 219 in early Monday trade
Gold & Silver Markets (+copper futures)
Gold traded slightly lower around $1,900 an ounce on Friday
On the week, Gold is on track for a 0.1% gain
Silver traded lower below $25 an ounce on Friday
On the week, silver is set to gain 1.4%
Copper fell to $3.15 per pound on Friday, reversing course from earlier this week as some investors believe the recent rally to near 28-month highs was overstated and is not fully supported by the fundamentals of supply and demand
International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) said : On the supply side, refined copper production is forecast to decrease 0.1% from the previous year in 2020 and on the demand side, refined copper is expected to drop 4.6%, less than what was projected in May; and should increase 5% in 2021
US Gold futures (Comex) weakened to $1,900 an ounce in early Monday trade
US Spot Gold weakened to $1,900 an ounce in early Monday trade
Silver futures (Comex) weakened to $24.44 an ounce in early Monday trade
Copper futures (Comex) weakened to $312.5 per pound in early Monday trade
In India, Spot Gold weakened to INR 50,081 per 10 grams in early Monday trade
India – NCDEX Agridex
Agricultural futures index tracking the performance of the 10 liquid commodities, was up 0.06% trading at 1,189.55 ; with major gains in Mustard Seed and Guar Gum futures on Friday
Currency Markets
The dollar index traded lower around 92.8 on Friday as investors digest the latest presidential debate and stimulus talks
On the week, the dollar is on track for a near 1% loss, being down near 5% on the year
INR weakened -0.09% with USD-INR at 73.6013
JPY strengthened 0.10% with USD-JPY at 104.7600
CNY weakened -0.03% with USD-CNY at 6.6868
Market participants moved into the Yuan following comments from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, noting that the currency has proved more stable than expected and has maintained relatively high flexibility
Earlier this month, the PBoC removed the 20% reserve requirement ratio for dollar purchases in the derivatives market to keep the Yuan in check and encourage controlled outflows through its qualified domestic institutional investor scheme, indicating the central bank is growing concerned with the pace of appreciation
EUR strengthened 0.24% with EUR-USD at 1.1846
GBP weakened -0.39% with GBP-USD at 1.3032
On the economic data, flash PMI data showed that service providers reported a decline in new business for the first time since June, which contrasted with another solid expansion in new orders received by manufacturing companies in October
SEK weakened-0.04% with USD-SEK at 8.7697
Bond Markets
Americas : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
United States : Down 2 basis points at 0.83%
Canada : Down 3 basis points at 0.63%
Europe, Middle East & Africa : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
Germany : Down 1 basis point at -0.58%
United Kingdom : Flat at 0.28%
France : Down 1 basis point at -0.30%
Netherlands : Down 1 basis point at -0.48%
Asia Pacific : 10-Year Govt Bond Yields
India : Down 7 basis points at 5.84%
Japan : Up 1 basis point at 0.03%
Australia : Up 5 basis points at 0.85%
Hong Kong : Up 9 basis points at 0.44%
Singapore : Flat at 0.83%
South Korea : Down 1 basis point at 1.49%
Fund Flows on NSE, BSE and MSEI – Oct 23 2020 (source NSE)
FII Net Buy Rs 906.93 Cr in Cash Market
DII Net Sell Rs -891.86 Cr in Cash Market
